The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Renate U19 at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Renate U19 Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate U19 | 35.2% | 39.1% | -3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.7% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Vicenza U19 | 35.2% | 35.2% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Renate U19; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Renate U19 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Vicenza U19 35.2%
- xG · Renate U19 1.30 — Vicenza U19 1.30
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 12:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Renate U19 2.30 · Draw 3.50 · Vicenza U19 2.55
- Implied 1X2 · Renate U19 39.1% · Draw 25.7% · Vicenza U19 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Renate U19 2.30 · Draw 3.50 · Vicenza U19 2.55
- Implied 1X2 · Renate U19 39.1% · Draw 25.7% · Vicenza U19 35.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campionato Primavera - 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena U19 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Renate U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bari U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova U19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Latina U19 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 25 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 27 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 28 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
| 30 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
| 31 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
