Prediction Audit: Frosinone U19 vs Pisa U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Frosinone U19

Sep 12, 2026 - 09:00

2 1.39

3 1.21

xG Accuracy: 52%

Pisa U19

The model missed the final outcome (Pisa U19 win 2–3).

The model had projected Frosinone U19 at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Frosinone U19 Pisa U19 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Frosinone U19	39.5%	22.4%	+17.1 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.5%	22.4%	+7.1 pp	Model Higher
Pisa U19	31.0%	55.2%	-24.2 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Pisa U19's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 24.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Pisa U19 win 2–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Frosinone U19 by 24.2 percentage points (63.7% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 12, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Frosinone U19 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Pisa U19 31.0%
- xG · Frosinone U19 1.39 — Pisa U19 1.21
Sep 12, 2026 · 08:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Frosinone U19 4.00 · Draw 4.00 · Pisa U19 1.62
- Implied 1X2 · Frosinone U19 22.4% · Draw 22.4% · Pisa U19 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 12, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Frosinone U19 4.00 · Draw 4.00 · Pisa U19 1.62
- Implied 1X2 · Frosinone U19 22.4% · Draw 22.4% · Pisa U19 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 12, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Pisa U19 win · 2–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (24 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7435038

Closing Odds 1.62

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Pisa U19 win · Frosinone U19 2–3 Pisa U19

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Campionato Primavera - 2
Fixture: Frosinone U19 vs Pisa U19
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Frosinone U19 1.39 — Pisa U19 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.1% · Probability edge: +11.8 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Campionato Primavera - 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Renate U19	3	2	1	0	7
1	Perugia U19	3	3	0	0	9
2	Vicenza U19	3	2	1	0	7
2	Catanzaro U19	3	3	0	0	9
3	Cremonese U19	3	2	0	1	6
3	Avellino U19	3	3	0	0	9
4	Virtus Entella U19	3	2	0	1	6
4	Bari U19	3	2	1	0	7
5	Padova U19	3	2	0	1	6
5	Palermo U19	3	2	1	0	7
6	Mantova U19	3	1	2	0	5
6	Benevento U19	3	2	0	1	6
7	Sampdoria U19	3	1	2	0	5
7	Spezia U19	3	1	1	1	4
8	Modena U19	3	1	1	1	4
8	Monopoli U19	3	1	1	1	4
9	Venezia U19	3	1	1	1	4
9	Pescara U19	3	1	1	1	4
10	Brescia U19	3	1	1	1	4
10	Latina U19	3	1	0	2	3
11	Cittadella U19	3	1	0	2	3
11	Pisa U19	3	1	0	2	3
12	Udinese U19	3	1	0	2	3
12	Ascoli U19	3	0	2	1	2
13	Sudtirol U19	3	0	2	1	2
13	Napoli U19	3	0	1	2	1
14	Reggiana U19	3	0	1	2	1
14	Frosinone U19	3	0	0	3	0
15	Pro Vercelli U19	3	0	1	2	1
15	Cosenza U19	3	0	0	3	0
16	Lecco U19	3	0	1	2	1
16	Salernitana U19	3	0	0	3	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Perugia U19	3	12	2	+10	9
2	Catanzaro U19	3	11	2	+9	9
3	Modena U19	3	10	8	+2	4
4	Benevento U19	3	9	3	+6	6
5	Avellino U19	3	8	3	+5	9
6	Renate U19	3	8	3	+5	7
7	Bari U19	3	8	3	+5	7
8	Palermo U19	3	8	5	+3	7
9	Cremonese U19	3	8	5	+3	6
10	Virtus Entella U19	3	8	5	+3	6
11	Cittadella U19	3	8	10	-2	3
12	Sampdoria U19	3	7	5	+2	5
13	Venezia U19	3	7	6	+1	4
14	Vicenza U19	3	6	1	+5	7
15	Padova U19	3	6	4	+2	6
16	Spezia U19	3	6	4	+2	4
17	Monopoli U19	3	6	5	+1	4
18	Pescara U19	3	6	6	0	4
19	Brescia U19	3	6	6	0	4
20	Latina U19	3	5	6	-1	3
21	Pisa U19	3	5	8	-3	3
22	Napoli U19	3	5	8	-3	1
23	Udinese U19	3	5	10	-5	3
24	Mantova U19	3	4	1	+3	5
25	Ascoli U19	3	4	5	-1	2
26	Frosinone U19	3	2	12	-10	0
27	Reggiana U19	3	1	4	-3	1
28	Lecco U19	3	1	8	-7	1
29	Cosenza U19	3	1	11	-10	0
30	Salernitana U19	3	1	14	-13	0
31	Sudtirol U19	3	0	3	-3	2
32	Pro Vercelli U19	3	0	6	-6	1