AI correctly predicted the Farul Constanţa W win.
The match finished 1–8, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Farul Constanţa W Farul Constanţa W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-8 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Cluj | 26.6% | 22.9% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.0% | 22.9% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Farul Constanţa W | 44.3% | 54.2% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Farul Constanţa W's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Farul Constanţa W win 1–8).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Farul Constanţa W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 9 goals materialised
- Farul Constanţa W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (9 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Farul Constanţa W higher (54.1% vs model 44.3%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Farul Constanţa W win 1–8).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Olimpia Cluj 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Farul Constanţa W 44.3%
- xG · Olimpia Cluj 1.11 — Farul Constanţa W 1.49
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 09:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia Cluj 3.90 · Draw 3.90 · Farul Constanţa W 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Cluj 22.9% · Draw 22.9% · Farul Constanţa W 54.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Olimpia Cluj 3.90 · Draw 3.90 · Farul Constanţa W 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Olimpia Cluj 22.9% · Draw 22.9% · Farul Constanţa W 54.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Farul Constanţa W win · 1–8
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga 1 Feminin — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farul Constanţa W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | SSU Poli Timişoara W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Csikszereda MC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Olimpia Cluj | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Rapid Bucuresti W | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 7 | Univ. Craiova W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Vasas Femina W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farul Constanţa W | 5 | 49 | 4 | +45 | 12 |
| 2 | SSU Poli Timişoara W | 6 | 30 | 6 | +24 | 12 |
| 3 | Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud | 5 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 12 |
| 4 | Csikszereda MC | 5 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 12 |
| 5 | Olimpia Cluj | 5 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Rapid Bucuresti W | 6 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 3 |
| 7 | Univ. Craiova W | 5 | 5 | 35 | -30 | 3 |
| 8 | Vasas Femina W | 5 | 1 | 60 | -59 | 0 |
