The model missed the final outcome (Køge win 0–1).
The model had projected PSV/Eindhoven W at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 PSV/Eindhoven W Køge ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV/Eindhoven W | 35.6% | 47.3% | -11.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Køge | 34.7% | 27.6% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates PSV/Eindhoven W's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Køge win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about PSV/Eindhoven W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned PSV/Eindhoven W; match finished Køge
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on PSV/Eindhoven W by 11.7 percentage points (47.3% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · PSV/Eindhoven W 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Køge 34.7%
- xG · PSV/Eindhoven W 1.31 — Køge 1.29
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · PSV/Eindhoven W 2.02 · Draw 3.57 · Køge 3.16
- Implied 1X2 · PSV/Eindhoven W 45.4% · Draw 25.7% · Køge 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · PSV/Eindhoven W 1.96 · Draw 3.70 · Køge 3.36
- Implied 1X2 · PSV/Eindhoven W 47.3% · Draw 25.1% · Køge 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Køge win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Champions League Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Barcelona W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | SL Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Arsenal W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Inter Milano W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Manchester City W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Bayern Munich W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Paris Saint Germain W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Real Madrid W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | OH Leuven W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Roma W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Juventus W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Austria Wien W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Häcken | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Køge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris FC W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 1 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 2 | Barcelona W | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | SL Benfica | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester City W | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich W | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Paris FC W | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 7 | Arsenal W | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Chelsea W | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Inter Milano W | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Paris Saint Germain W | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Real Madrid W | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Juventus W | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | OH Leuven W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Roma W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Austria Wien W | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Häcken | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Køge | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
