Predictions / Football / Japan. Emperor Cup / Imabari vs Blaublitz Akita

Prediction Audit: Imabari vs Blaublitz Akita Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Imabari Imabari
Aug 26, 2026 - 10:00
4 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Blaublitz Akita Blaublitz Akita

The model missed the final outcome (Imabari win 4–1).

The model had projected Blaublitz Akita at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Blaublitz Akita Imabari ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Blaublitz Akita -2.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Imabari 34.7% 33.6% +1.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.3% +1.4 pp Aligned
Blaublitz Akita 35.6% 38.2% -2.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Imabari win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Blaublitz Akita; match finished Imabari

Market lesson

The full-time result was Imabari win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Imabari 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Blaublitz Akita 35.6%
    • xG · Imabari 1.29 — Blaublitz Akita 1.31
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Imabari 2.73 · Draw 3.24 · Blaublitz Akita 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Imabari 33.6% · Draw 28.3% · Blaublitz Akita 38.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Imabari 2.73 · Draw 3.24 · Blaublitz Akita 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Imabari 33.6% · Draw 28.3% · Blaublitz Akita 38.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Imabari win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4672377

Closing Odds 2.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Imabari win · Imabari 4–1 Blaublitz Akita
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Emperor Cup
  • Fixture: Imabari vs Blaublitz Akita
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Imabari 1.29 — Blaublitz Akita 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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