The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Ranger's at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ranger's Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa de Portugal | 30.6% | 9.3% | +21.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 14.4% | +15.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Ranger's | 39.9% | 76.3% | -36.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ranger's's win probability at 76.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 36.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Ranger's; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ranger's by 36.4 percentage points (76.3% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Casa de Portugal 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Ranger's 40.0%
- xG · Casa de Portugal 1.20 — Ranger's 1.40
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Casa de Portugal 9.55 · Draw 6.15 · Ranger's 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · Casa de Portugal 9.3% · Draw 14.4% · Ranger's 76.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Casa de Portugal 9.55 · Draw 6.15 · Ranger's 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · Casa de Portugal 9.3% · Draw 14.4% · Ranger's 76.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (36 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1a Divisió — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Ordino | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Ranger's | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Esperança d'Andorra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 8 | Casa de Portugal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Carroi | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Sporting Escaldes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Santa Coloma | 3 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 9 |
| 2 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 |
| 3 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 3 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 |
| 4 | Esperança d'Andorra | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 5 | Ordino | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Ranger's | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 8 | Casa de Portugal | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
| 10 | Carroi | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
