The model missed the final outcome (Portuguesa FC win 1–0).
The model had projected Trujillanos FC at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Trujillanos FC Portuguesa FC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portuguesa FC | 33.3% | 48.7% | -15.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.6% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Trujillanos FC | 37.1% | 23.8% | +13.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Portuguesa FC's win probability at 48.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 15.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Portuguesa FC win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Portuguesa FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Trujillanos FC; match finished Portuguesa FC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Trujillanos FC by 15.3 percentage points (52.5% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Portuguesa FC 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Trujillanos FC 37.0%
- xG · Portuguesa FC 1.26 — Trujillanos FC 1.34
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 22:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Portuguesa FC 1.87 · Draw 3.30 · Trujillanos FC 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Portuguesa FC 48.7% · Draw 27.6% · Trujillanos FC 23.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Portuguesa FC 1.87 · Draw 3.30 · Trujillanos FC 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Portuguesa FC 48.7% · Draw 27.6% · Trujillanos FC 23.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Portuguesa FC win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| 8 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Caracas FC | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 26 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Zamora FC | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
| 12 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 24 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 35 | 22 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 37 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | 24 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 36 |
| 9 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 25 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Caracas FC | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 26 |
| 12 | Zamora FC | 24 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 14 |
