Predictions / Football / Indonesia. Liga 1 / Pusamania Borneo vs Dewa United

Prediction Audit: Pusamania Borneo vs Dewa United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pusamania Borneo Pusamania Borneo
Sep 16, 2026 - 08:30
1 1.40
3 1.20
xG Accuracy: 55%
Dewa United Dewa United

The model missed the final outcome (Dewa United win 1–3).

The model had projected Pusamania Borneo at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pusamania Borneo Dewa United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Pusamania Borneo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pusamania Borneo -5.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pusamania Borneo 39.9% 45.5% -5.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 26.1% +3.3 pp Aligned
Dewa United 30.6% 28.3% +2.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Pusamania Borneo's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dewa United win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Pusamania Borneo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pusamania Borneo by 5.6 percentage points (45.5% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 16, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pusamania Borneo 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Dewa United 30.6%
    • xG · Pusamania Borneo 1.40 — Dewa United 1.20
  2. Sep 16, 2026 · 07:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pusamania Borneo 2.10 · Draw 3.63 · Dewa United 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Pusamania Borneo 45.3% · Draw 26.2% · Dewa United 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 16, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pusamania Borneo 2.09 · Draw 3.64 · Dewa United 3.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Pusamania Borneo 45.5% · Draw 26.1% · Dewa United 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 16, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dewa United win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 10, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7845340

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dewa United win · Pusamania Borneo 1–3 Dewa United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: Pusamania Borneo vs Dewa United
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-16 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Pusamania Borneo 1.4 — Dewa United 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.8% · Probability edge: +7.1 pts · Est. EV: +11.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dewa United 4 3 1 0 10
2 Persepam Madura Utd 3 3 0 0 9
3 Persija 3 3 0 0 9
4 Bali United 3 2 0 1 6
5 Persib Bandung 3 2 0 1 6
6 Pusamania Borneo 4 2 0 2 6
7 Arema FC 3 1 2 0 5
8 Bhayangkara FC 3 1 2 0 5
9 Persita 3 1 2 0 5
10 Persebaya Surabaya 3 1 2 0 5
11 Persik Kediri 3 1 1 1 4
12 PSM Makassar 3 0 2 1 2
13 Garudayaksa 3 0 2 1 2
14 PSIM Yogyakarta 3 0 1 2 1
15 PSS Sleman 3 0 0 3 0
16 Persijap 3 0 0 3 0
17 Malut United 3 0 1 2 -1
18 Adhyaksa 3 0 0 3 -2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dewa United 4 8 4 +4 10
2 Arema FC 3 8 4 +4 5
3 Persepam Madura Utd 3 7 2 +5 9
4 Bali United 3 6 3 +3 6
5 Persib Bandung 3 6 4 +2 6
6 Persita 3 6 5 +1 5
7 PSM Makassar 3 6 8 -2 2
8 Bhayangkara FC 3 5 3 +2 5
9 Persija 3 4 1 +3 9
10 Persebaya Surabaya 3 3 2 +1 5
11 Persik Kediri 3 3 2 +1 4
12 Pusamania Borneo 4 3 4 -1 6
13 Malut United 3 3 5 -2 -1
14 PSS Sleman 3 3 7 -4 0
15 Garudayaksa 3 2 4 -2 2
16 PSIM Yogyakarta 3 2 4 -2 1
17 Persijap 3 1 5 -4 0
18 Adhyaksa 3 1 10 -9 -2