Prediction Audit: Persepam Madura Utd vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Persepam Madura Utd

Sep 18, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.31

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 76%

PSIM Yogyakarta

AI correctly predicted the Persepam Madura Utd win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Persepam Madura Utd Persepam Madura Utd ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Persepam Madura Utd	35.6%	45.5%	-9.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.4%	+3.2 pp	Aligned
PSIM Yogyakarta	34.7%	28.1%	+6.6 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Persepam Madura Utd's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Persepam Madura Utd win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Persepam Madura Utd. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Persepam Madura Utd higher (45.5% vs model 35.6%, 9.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Persepam Madura Utd win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 18, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Persepam Madura Utd 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · PSIM Yogyakarta 34.7%
- xG · Persepam Madura Utd 1.31 — PSIM Yogyakarta 1.29
Sep 18, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Persepam Madura Utd 2.09 · Draw 3.60 · PSIM Yogyakarta 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · Persepam Madura Utd 45.5% · Draw 26.4% · PSIM Yogyakarta 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 18, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Persepam Madura Utd 2.09 · Draw 3.60 · PSIM Yogyakarta 3.39
- Implied 1X2 · Persepam Madura Utd 45.5% · Draw 26.4% · PSIM Yogyakarta 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Persepam Madura Utd win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 50/100

Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8194763

Closing Odds 2.09

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Persepam Madura Utd win · Persepam Madura Utd 2–1 PSIM Yogyakarta

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga 1
Fixture: Persepam Madura Utd vs PSIM Yogyakarta
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Persepam Madura Utd 1.31 — PSIM Yogyakarta 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	3	1	0	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	3	3	0	0	9
3	Persija	3	3	0	0	9
4	Bali United	3	2	0	1	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	2	0	1	6
6	Pusamania Borneo	4	2	0	2	6
7	Arema FC	3	1	2	0	5
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	1	2	0	5
9	Persita	3	1	2	0	5
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	1	2	0	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	1	1	1	4
12	PSM Makassar	3	0	2	1	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	0	2	1	2
14	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	0	1	2	1
15	PSS Sleman	3	0	0	3	0
16	Persijap	3	0	0	3	0
17	Malut United	3	0	1	2	-1
18	Adhyaksa	3	0	0	3	-2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	8	4	+4	10
2	Arema FC	3	8	4	+4	5
3	Persepam Madura Utd	3	7	2	+5	9
4	Bali United	3	6	3	+3	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	6	4	+2	6
6	Persita	3	6	5	+1	5
7	PSM Makassar	3	6	8	-2	2
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	5	3	+2	5
9	Persija	3	4	1	+3	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	3	2	+1	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	3	2	+1	4
12	Pusamania Borneo	4	3	4	-1	6
13	Malut United	3	3	5	-2	-1
14	PSS Sleman	3	3	7	-4	0
15	Garudayaksa	3	2	4	-2	2
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	2	4	-2	1
17	Persijap	3	1	5	-4	0
18	Adhyaksa	3	1	10	-9	-2