Prediction Audit: Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIM Yogyakarta Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Persebaya Surabaya

Sep 13, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.48

0 1.12

xG Accuracy: 64%

PSIM Yogyakarta

AI correctly predicted the Persebaya Surabaya win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Persebaya Surabaya	43.8%	55.4%	-11.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.1%	24.6%	+4.5 pp	Aligned
PSIM Yogyakarta	27.1%	20.0%	+7.0 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Persebaya Surabaya's win probability at 55.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Persebaya Surabaya win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Persebaya Surabaya than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Persebaya Surabaya attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Persebaya Surabaya higher (55.4% vs model 43.8%, 11.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Persebaya Surabaya win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 13, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · PSIM Yogyakarta 27.1%
- xG · Persebaya Surabaya 1.48 — PSIM Yogyakarta 1.12
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Persebaya Surabaya 1.71 · Draw 3.86 · PSIM Yogyakarta 4.73
- Implied 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 55.4% · Draw 24.6% · PSIM Yogyakarta 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Persebaya Surabaya 1.71 · Draw 3.86 · PSIM Yogyakarta 4.73
- Implied 1X2 · Persebaya Surabaya 55.4% · Draw 24.6% · PSIM Yogyakarta 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 13, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Persebaya Surabaya win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 42/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7430992

Closing Odds 1.71

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Persebaya Surabaya win · Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSIM Yogyakarta

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga 1
Fixture: Persebaya Surabaya vs PSIM Yogyakarta
Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Persebaya Surabaya 1.48 — PSIM Yogyakarta 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.0% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +4.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	3	1	0	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	3	3	0	0	9
3	Persija	3	3	0	0	9
4	Bali United	3	2	0	1	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	2	0	1	6
6	Pusamania Borneo	4	2	0	2	6
7	Arema FC	3	1	2	0	5
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	1	2	0	5
9	Persita	3	1	2	0	5
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	1	2	0	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	1	1	1	4
12	PSM Makassar	3	0	2	1	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	0	2	1	2
14	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	0	1	2	1
15	PSS Sleman	3	0	0	3	0
16	Persijap	3	0	0	3	0
17	Malut United	3	0	1	2	-1
18	Adhyaksa	3	0	0	3	-2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	8	4	+4	10
2	Arema FC	3	8	4	+4	5
3	Persepam Madura Utd	3	7	2	+5	9
4	Bali United	3	6	3	+3	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	6	4	+2	6
6	Persita	3	6	5	+1	5
7	PSM Makassar	3	6	8	-2	2
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	5	3	+2	5
9	Persija	3	4	1	+3	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	3	2	+1	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	3	2	+1	4
12	Pusamania Borneo	4	3	4	-1	6
13	Malut United	3	3	5	-2	-1
14	PSS Sleman	3	3	7	-4	0
15	Garudayaksa	3	2	4	-2	2
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	2	4	-2	1
17	Persijap	3	1	5	-4	0
18	Adhyaksa	3	1	10	-9	-2