Prediction Audit: Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dewa United

Sep 11, 2026 - 12:00

2 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 68%

Bhayangkara FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Dewa United at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Dewa United Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Dewa United	38.5%	48.7%	-10.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	27.3%	+2.3 pp	Aligned
Bhayangkara FC	31.9%	24.0%	+7.9 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Dewa United's win probability at 48.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dewa United than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Dewa United; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dewa United by 10.2 percentage points (48.7% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 11, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dewa United 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Bhayangkara FC 31.9%
- xG · Dewa United 1.37 — Bhayangkara FC 1.23
Sep 11, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dewa United 1.76 · Draw 3.70 · Bhayangkara FC 4.66
- Implied 1X2 · Dewa United 54.0% · Draw 25.7% · Bhayangkara FC 20.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dewa United 1.95 · Draw 3.48 · Bhayangkara FC 3.95
- Implied 1X2 · Dewa United 48.7% · Draw 27.3% · Bhayangkara FC 24.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (10 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7022077

Closing Odds 1.95

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Dewa United 2–2 Bhayangkara FC

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga 1
Fixture: Dewa United vs Bhayangkara FC
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Dewa United 1.37 — Bhayangkara FC 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	3	1	0	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	3	3	0	0	9
3	Persija	3	3	0	0	9
4	Bali United	3	2	0	1	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	2	0	1	6
6	Pusamania Borneo	4	2	0	2	6
7	Arema FC	3	1	2	0	5
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	1	2	0	5
9	Persita	3	1	2	0	5
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	1	2	0	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	1	1	1	4
12	PSM Makassar	3	0	2	1	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	0	2	1	2
14	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	0	1	2	1
15	PSS Sleman	3	0	0	3	0
16	Persijap	3	0	0	3	0
17	Malut United	3	0	1	2	-1
18	Adhyaksa	3	0	0	3	-2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	8	4	+4	10
2	Arema FC	3	8	4	+4	5
3	Persepam Madura Utd	3	7	2	+5	9
4	Bali United	3	6	3	+3	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	6	4	+2	6
6	Persita	3	6	5	+1	5
7	PSM Makassar	3	6	8	-2	2
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	5	3	+2	5
9	Persija	3	4	1	+3	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	3	2	+1	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	3	2	+1	4
12	Pusamania Borneo	4	3	4	-1	6
13	Malut United	3	3	5	-2	-1
14	PSS Sleman	3	3	7	-4	0
15	Garudayaksa	3	2	4	-2	2
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	2	4	-2	1
17	Persijap	3	1	5	-4	0
18	Adhyaksa	3	1	10	-9	-2