The model missed the final outcome (Sporting Cristal W win 0–4).
The model had projected Killas W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Killas W Sporting Cristal W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killas W | 36.1% | 6.0% | +30.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 9.2% | +20.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Sporting Cristal W | 34.2% | 84.8% | -50.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Sporting Cristal W's win probability at 84.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 50.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sporting Cristal W win 0–4.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Killas W by 50.6 percentage points (86.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Killas W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sporting Cristal W 34.2%
- xG · Killas W 1.32 — Sporting Cristal W 1.28
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 14:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Killas W 15.02 · Draw 9.75 · Sporting Cristal W 1.06
- Implied 1X2 · Killas W 6.0% · Draw 9.2% · Sporting Cristal W 84.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Killas W 15.02 · Draw 9.75 · Sporting Cristal W 1.06
- Implied 1X2 · Killas W 6.0% · Draw 9.2% · Sporting Cristal W 84.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sporting Cristal W win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (51 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. de Deportes W | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Atl. Andahuaylas W | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Defensores W | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Killas W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. de Deportes W | 10 | 55 | 4 | +51 | 28 |
| 2 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 21 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 16 |
| 7 | Atl. Andahuaylas W | 10 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 25 |
| 8 | Killas W | 10 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 5 |
| 9 | Defensores W | 10 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 7 |
| 10 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 4 | 43 | -39 | 4 |
