Prediction Audit: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Sep 19, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.30

xG Accuracy: 39%

Ironi Baka El Garbiya

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	35.2%	41.8%	-6.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	27.2%	+2.4 pp	Aligned
Ironi Baka El Garbiya	35.2%	31.0%	+4.2 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Hapoel Umm al-Fahm's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Umm al-Fahm. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hapoel Umm al-Fahm by 6.6 percentage points (41.8% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 19, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 35.2%
- xG · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.30 — Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1.30
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2.15 · Draw 3.30 · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 41.8% · Draw 27.2% · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 19, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2.15 · Draw 3.30 · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 41.8% · Draw 27.2% · Ironi Baka El Garbiya 31.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
Sep 19, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 66/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8667521

Closing Odds 2.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3–3 Ironi Baka El Garbiya

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Liga Alef
Fixture: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.3 — Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.6% · Probability edge: +4.2 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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