Prediction Audit: Persib Bandung vs PSM Makassar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Persib Bandung

Sep 06, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.55

1 1.05

xG Accuracy: 66%

PSM Makassar

AI correctly predicted the Persib Bandung win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Persib Bandung Persib Bandung ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Persib Bandung	47.3%	69.7%	-22.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	28.6%	19.3%	+9.3 pp	Model Higher
PSM Makassar	24.1%	11.0%	+13.1 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Persib Bandung's win probability at 69.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.3%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Persib Bandung win 3–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Persib Bandung attacking xG significantly stronger (1.55 vs 1.05)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Persib Bandung higher (69.7% vs model 47.3%, 22.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Persib Bandung win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Persib Bandung 47.3% · Draw 28.5% · PSM Makassar 24.1%
- xG · Persib Bandung 1.55 — PSM Makassar 1.05
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Persib Bandung 1.36 · Draw 4.92 · PSM Makassar 8.61
- Implied 1X2 · Persib Bandung 69.7% · Draw 19.3% · PSM Makassar 11.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Persib Bandung 1.36 · Draw 4.92 · PSM Makassar 8.61
- Implied 1X2 · Persib Bandung 69.7% · Draw 19.3% · PSM Makassar 11.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Persib Bandung win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (22 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6328550

Closing Odds 1.36

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Persib Bandung win · Persib Bandung 3–1 PSM Makassar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga 1
Fixture: Persib Bandung vs PSM Makassar
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 47.3% · Draw 28.5% · Away 24.1%
xG (showing): Persib Bandung 1.55 — PSM Makassar 1.05 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.8% · No 47.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	3	1	0	10
2	Persepam Madura Utd	3	3	0	0	9
3	Persija	3	3	0	0	9
4	Bali United	3	2	0	1	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	2	0	1	6
6	Pusamania Borneo	4	2	0	2	6
7	Arema FC	3	1	2	0	5
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	1	2	0	5
9	Persita	3	1	2	0	5
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	1	2	0	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	1	1	1	4
12	PSM Makassar	3	0	2	1	2
13	Garudayaksa	3	0	2	1	2
14	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	0	1	2	1
15	PSS Sleman	3	0	0	3	0
16	Persijap	3	0	0	3	0
17	Malut United	3	0	1	2	-1
18	Adhyaksa	3	0	0	3	-2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dewa United	4	8	4	+4	10
2	Arema FC	3	8	4	+4	5
3	Persepam Madura Utd	3	7	2	+5	9
4	Bali United	3	6	3	+3	6
5	Persib Bandung	3	6	4	+2	6
6	Persita	3	6	5	+1	5
7	PSM Makassar	3	6	8	-2	2
8	Bhayangkara FC	3	5	3	+2	5
9	Persija	3	4	1	+3	9
10	Persebaya Surabaya	3	3	2	+1	5
11	Persik Kediri	3	3	2	+1	4
12	Pusamania Borneo	4	3	4	-1	6
13	Malut United	3	3	5	-2	-1
14	PSS Sleman	3	3	7	-4	0
15	Garudayaksa	3	2	4	-2	2
16	PSIM Yogyakarta	3	2	4	-2	1
17	Persijap	3	1	5	-4	0
18	Adhyaksa	3	1	10	-9	-2