AI correctly predicted the Bali United win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Bali United Bali United ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bali United | 40.4% | 53.0% | -12.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.4% | +2.0 pp | Aligned |
| PSS Sleman | 30.1% | 19.7% | +10.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Bali United's win probability at 53.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bali United win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Bali United than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bali United higher (52.9% vs model 40.4%, 12.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bali United win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bali United 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · PSS Sleman 30.1%
- xG · Bali United 1.41 — PSS Sleman 1.19
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bali United 1.79 · Draw 3.46 · PSS Sleman 4.82
- Implied 1X2 · Bali United 53.0% · Draw 27.4% · PSS Sleman 19.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bali United 1.79 · Draw 3.46 · PSS Sleman 4.82
- Implied 1X2 · Bali United 53.0% · Draw 27.4% · PSS Sleman 19.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bali United win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dewa United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Persepam Madura Utd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Persija | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Bali United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Pusamania Borneo | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Arema FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Persita | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Persik Kediri | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | PSM Makassar | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Garudayaksa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Persijap | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Malut United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 | Adhyaksa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dewa United | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 | Arema FC | 3 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 5 |
| 3 | Persepam Madura Utd | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Bali United | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Persita | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | PSM Makassar | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2 |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Persija | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Persik Kediri | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pusamania Borneo | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Malut United | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | -1 |
| 14 | PSS Sleman | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Garudayaksa | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Persijap | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Adhyaksa | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | -2 |
