The model missed the final outcome (Leeds United U21 win 2–0).
The model had projected Newcastle United U21 at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Newcastle United U21 Leeds United U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United U21 | 33.3% | 38.0% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.7% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Newcastle United U21 | 37.1% | 38.3% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Leeds United U21 win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Newcastle United U21; match finished Leeds United U21
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Newcastle United U21 by 6.0 percentage points (31.1% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leeds United U21 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Newcastle United U21 37.0%
- xG · Leeds United U21 1.26 — Newcastle United U21 1.34
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leeds United U21 2.41 · Draw 3.87 · Newcastle United U21 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Leeds United U21 38.0% · Draw 23.7% · Newcastle United U21 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leeds United U21 2.41 · Draw 3.87 · Newcastle United U21 2.39
- Implied 1X2 · Leeds United U21 38.0% · Draw 23.7% · Newcastle United U21 38.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Leeds United U21 win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League 2 Division One — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Reading U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 17 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 21 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 22 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 28 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 |
| 2 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 5 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 7 |
| 6 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 14 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 15 | Reading U21 | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 18 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
| 21 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 22 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3 |
| 23 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 24 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 25 | Everton U21 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 26 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 27 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
