The model missed the final outcome (Villa Nova win 1–2).
The model had projected Democrata SL at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Democrata SL Villa Nova ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrata SL | 36.1% | 43.1% | -7.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.9% | -2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Villa Nova | 34.2% | 25.0% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Villa Nova's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.0%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Villa Nova win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Villa Nova.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Democrata SL; match finished Villa Nova
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Democrata SL by 9.2 percentage points (26.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Democrata SL 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Villa Nova 34.2%
- xG · Democrata SL 1.32 — Villa Nova 1.28
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Democrata SL 2.06 · Draw 2.78 · Villa Nova 3.55
- Implied 1X2 · Democrata SL 43.1% · Draw 31.9% · Villa Nova 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Democrata SL 2.06 · Draw 2.78 · Villa Nova 3.55
- Implied 1X2 · Democrata SL 43.1% · Draw 31.9% · Villa Nova 25.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Villa Nova win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Mineiro - 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uberaba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Valeriodoce | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Democrata SL | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | BOA | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Aymorés | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Villa Nova | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | CAP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Mamoré | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | Guarani MG | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Coimbra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Caldense | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 | Ipatinga | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democrata SL | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Uberaba | 10 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 | Aymorés | 10 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Villa Nova | 10 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | BOA | 10 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 | Coimbra | 10 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Guarani MG | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Valeriodoce | 10 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 20 |
| 9 | CAP | 10 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Mamoré | 10 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Caldense | 10 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Ipatinga | 10 | 6 | 33 | -27 | 4 |
