Prediction Audit: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Aug 16, 2026 - 17:00

1 1.17

2 1.43

xG Accuracy: 82%

Hapoel Tel Aviv

AI correctly predicted the Hapoel Tel Aviv win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hapoel Tel Aviv Hapoel Tel Aviv ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Ironi Kiryat Shmona	29.2%	28.7%	+0.5 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.4%	28.2%	+1.1 pp	Aligned
Hapoel Tel Aviv	41.4%	43.0%	-1.6 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hapoel Tel Aviv win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Hapoel Tel Aviv win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 16, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Hapoel Tel Aviv 41.4%
- xG · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.17 — Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.43
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3.19 · Draw 3.25 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 28.7% · Draw 28.2% · Hapoel Tel Aviv 43.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3.19 · Draw 3.25 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 28.7% · Draw 28.2% · Hapoel Tel Aviv 43.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 16, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hapoel Tel Aviv win · 1–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 91/100

Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3613141

Closing Odds 2.13

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hapoel Tel Aviv win · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Toto Cup Ligat Al
Fixture: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Kickoff: 2026-08-16 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.17 — Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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