AI correctly predicted the Nam Dinh win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Nam Dinh Nam Dinh ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nam Dinh | 45.8% | 73.7% | -27.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.8% | 17.2% | +11.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 25.4% | 9.1% | +16.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Nam Dinh's win probability at 73.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Nam Dinh win 4–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Nam Dinh attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Nam Dinh higher (73.6% vs model 45.8%, 27.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Nam Dinh win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nam Dinh 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Hoang Anh Gia Lai 25.4%
- xG · Nam Dinh 1.52 — Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1.08
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nam Dinh 1.25 · Draw 5.34 · Hoang Anh Gia Lai 10.10
- Implied 1X2 · Nam Dinh 73.7% · Draw 17.2% · Hoang Anh Gia Lai 9.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nam Dinh 1.25 · Draw 5.34 · Hoang Anh Gia Lai 10.10
- Implied 1X2 · Nam Dinh 73.7% · Draw 17.2% · Hoang Anh Gia Lai 9.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nam Dinh win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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V.League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Da Nang | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Nam Dinh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Viettel | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Thanh Hóa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Bắc Ninh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Hai Phong | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Ha Noi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Da Nang | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Nam Dinh | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Thanh Hóa | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hai Phong | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Ho Chi Minh City | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Viettel | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
