Predictions / Football / Portugal. Taça de Portugal / Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses

Prediction Audit: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lusitano Évora 1911 Lusitano Évora 1911
Aug 30, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
CF Os Belenenses CF Os Belenenses

The model missed the final outcome (CF Os Belenenses win 1–2).

The model had projected Lusitano Évora 1911 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lusitano Évora 1911 CF Os Belenenses ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices CF Os Belenenses higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: CF Os Belenenses -20.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Lusitano Évora 1911 37.5% 23.2% +14.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.2% +6.4 pp Model Higher
CF Os Belenenses 32.9% 53.6% -20.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates CF Os Belenenses's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 20.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was CF Os Belenenses win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Lusitano Évora 1911; match finished CF Os Belenenses

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lusitano Évora 1911 by 20.7 percentage points (58.2% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Lusitano Évora 1911 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · CF Os Belenenses 32.9%
    • xG · Lusitano Évora 1911 1.35 — CF Os Belenenses 1.25
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Lusitano Évora 1911 3.88 · Draw 3.87 · CF Os Belenenses 1.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Lusitano Évora 1911 23.2% · Draw 23.2% · CF Os Belenenses 53.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Lusitano Évora 1911 3.88 · Draw 3.87 · CF Os Belenenses 1.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Lusitano Évora 1911 23.2% · Draw 23.2% · CF Os Belenenses 53.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CF Os Belenenses win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5300566

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CF Os Belenenses win · Lusitano Évora 1911 1–2 CF Os Belenenses
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Taça de Portugal
  • Fixture: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Lusitano Évora 1911 1.35 — CF Os Belenenses 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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