The model missed the final outcome (Cailungo win 0–3).
The model had projected San Giovanni at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 San Giovanni Cailungo ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Giovanni | 39.0% | 51.1% | -12.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.9% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Cailungo | 31.5% | 23.0% | +8.4 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates San Giovanni's win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Cailungo win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about San Giovanni than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on San Giovanni by 12.1 percentage points (51.1% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Giovanni 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Cailungo 31.5%
- xG · San Giovanni 1.38 — Cailungo 1.22
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:38 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Giovanni 1.74 · Draw 3.44 · Cailungo 3.86
- Implied 1X2 · San Giovanni 51.1% · Draw 25.9% · Cailungo 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Giovanni 1.74 · Draw 3.44 · Cailungo 3.86
- Implied 1X2 · San Giovanni 51.1% · Draw 25.9% · Cailungo 23.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cailungo win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campionato — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Virtus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Domagnano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Folgore | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Cosmos | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Domagnano | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Pennarossa | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Virtus | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | La Fiorita | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Libertas | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Fiorentino | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Cailungo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | San Giovanni | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 2 |
