AI correctly predicted the Domagnano win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Domagnano Domagnano ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domagnano | 40.9% | 55.2% | -14.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.1% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| San Giovanni | 29.7% | 20.8% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Domagnano's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Domagnano win 4–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Domagnano than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Domagnano higher (55.2% vs model 40.9%, 14.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Domagnano win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Domagnano 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · San Giovanni 29.6%
- xG · Domagnano 1.42 — San Giovanni 1.18
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Domagnano 1.61 · Draw 3.69 · San Giovanni 4.28
- Implied 1X2 · Domagnano 55.2% · Draw 24.1% · San Giovanni 20.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Domagnano 1.61 · Draw 3.69 · San Giovanni 4.28
- Implied 1X2 · Domagnano 55.2% · Draw 24.1% · San Giovanni 20.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Domagnano win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campionato — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Virtus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Domagnano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Folgore | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Cosmos | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Domagnano | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Pennarossa | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Virtus | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | La Fiorita | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Libertas | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Fiorentino | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Cailungo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | San Giovanni | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 2 |
