AI correctly predicted the Fiorentino win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Fiorentino Fiorentino ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino Academy | 30.6% | 22.3% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.7% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Fiorentino | 39.9% | 51.9% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Fiorentino's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fiorentino win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Fiorentino than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fiorentino higher (51.9% vs model 39.9%, 12.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fiorentino win 0–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · San Marino Academy 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Fiorentino 40.0%
- xG · San Marino Academy 1.20 — Fiorentino 1.40
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · San Marino Academy 4.02 · Draw 3.49 · Fiorentino 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · San Marino Academy 22.3% · Draw 25.7% · Fiorentino 51.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · San Marino Academy 4.02 · Draw 3.49 · Fiorentino 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · San Marino Academy 22.3% · Draw 25.7% · Fiorentino 51.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Fiorentino win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Campionato — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Virtus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Domagnano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Folgore | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Cosmos | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Domagnano | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Pennarossa | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Virtus | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | La Fiorita | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Libertas | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Fiorentino | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Cailungo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | San Giovanni | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 2 |
