Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Copa de la División Profesional / Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí

Prediction Audit: Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nacional Potosí Nacional Potosí
Sep 22, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.39
1 1.21
xG Accuracy: 64%
Real Potosí Real Potosí

The model missed the final outcome (Real Potosí win 0–1).

The model had projected Nacional Potosí at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Nacional Potosí Real Potosí ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Nacional Potosí higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nacional Potosí -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nacional Potosí 39.5% 46.9% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.8% +4.7 pp Aligned
Real Potosí 31.0% 28.3% +2.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Nacional Potosí's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Real Potosí win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Nacional Potosí. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Nacional Potosí; match finished Real Potosí

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Nacional Potosí by 7.4 percentage points (46.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nacional Potosí 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Real Potosí 31.0%
    • xG · Nacional Potosí 1.39 — Real Potosí 1.21
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nacional Potosí 1.82 · Draw 3.44 · Real Potosí 3.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Nacional Potosí 46.9% · Draw 24.8% · Real Potosí 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nacional Potosí 1.82 · Draw 3.44 · Real Potosí 3.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Nacional Potosí 46.9% · Draw 24.8% · Real Potosí 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Potosí win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 05:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5164002

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Potosí win · Nacional Potosí 0–1 Real Potosí
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa de la División Profesional
  • Fixture: Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Nacional Potosí 1.39 — Real Potosí 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.9% · Probability edge: +6.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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