Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Copa de la División Profesional / Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro

Prediction Audit: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gualberto Villarroel SJ Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Aug 29, 2026 - 19:00
4 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 43%
Real Oruro Real Oruro

The model missed the final outcome (Gualberto Villarroel SJ win 4–1).

The model had projected Real Oruro at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Real Oruro Gualberto Villarroel SJ ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Gualberto Villarroel SJ -4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 34.2% 39.2% -4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.8% +3.8 pp Aligned
Real Oruro 36.1% 35.0% +1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Gualberto Villarroel SJ win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Real Oruro; match finished Gualberto Villarroel SJ

Market lesson

The full-time result was Gualberto Villarroel SJ win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Real Oruro 36.1%
    • xG · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1.28 — Real Oruro 1.32
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2.27 · Draw 3.44 · Real Oruro 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 39.2% · Draw 25.8% · Real Oruro 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2.27 · Draw 3.44 · Real Oruro 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 39.2% · Draw 25.8% · Real Oruro 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gualberto Villarroel SJ win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5161731

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gualberto Villarroel SJ win · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 4–1 Real Oruro
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa de la División Profesional
  • Fixture: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Real Oruro
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1.28 — Real Oruro 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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