The model missed the final outcome (Sheffield Wednesday U21 win 4–1).
The model had projected Wigan Athletic U21 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Wigan Athletic U21 Sheffield Wednesday U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 33.8% | 48.7% | -14.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.7% | +8.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Wigan Athletic U21 | 36.6% | 30.6% | +6.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Sheffield Wednesday U21's win probability at 48.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sheffield Wednesday U21 win 4–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Sheffield Wednesday U21 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Wigan Athletic U21; match finished Sheffield Wednesday U21
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Wigan Athletic U21 by 14.9 percentage points (51.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sheffield Wednesday U21 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Wigan Athletic U21 36.6%
- xG · Sheffield Wednesday U21 1.27 — Wigan Athletic U21 1.33
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sheffield Wednesday U21 1.88 · Draw 4.42 · Wigan Athletic U21 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Sheffield Wednesday U21 48.7% · Draw 20.7% · Wigan Athletic U21 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sheffield Wednesday U21 1.88 · Draw 4.42 · Wigan Athletic U21 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Sheffield Wednesday U21 48.7% · Draw 20.7% · Wigan Athletic U21 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sheffield Wednesday U21 win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Professional Development League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 5 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 15 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 8 |
| 4 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
