Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Primera División / Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Nacional Potosí

Prediction Audit: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Nacional Potosí Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gualberto Villarroel SJ Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Sep 12, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.45
3 1.49
xG Accuracy: 44%
Nacional Potosí Nacional Potosí

AI correctly predicted the Nacional Potosí win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nacional Potosí Nacional Potosí ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Nacional Potosí -2.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 35.2% 35.1% +0.1 pp Aligned
Draw 27.0% 24.8% +2.2 pp Aligned
Nacional Potosí 37.9% 40.1% -2.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Nacional Potosí win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.94) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Nacional Potosí win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 35.2% · Draw 26.9% · Nacional Potosí 37.9%
    • xG · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1.45 — Nacional Potosí 1.49
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2.58 · Draw 3.65 · Nacional Potosí 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 35.1% · Draw 24.8% · Nacional Potosí 40.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2.58 · Draw 3.65 · Nacional Potosí 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 35.1% · Draw 24.8% · Nacional Potosí 40.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nacional Potosí win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 88/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 03:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7469252

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nacional Potosí win · Gualberto Villarroel SJ 0–3 Nacional Potosí
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Nacional Potosí
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 26.9% · Away 37.9%
  • xG (showing): Gualberto Villarroel SJ 1.45 — Nacional Potosí 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 43.7% · Implied: 43.3% · Probability edge: +0.4 pts · Est. EV: +4.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Always Ready 20 13 6 1 45
2 Bolívar 20 14 3 3 45
3 The Strongest 20 12 6 2 42
4 Real Potosí 20 8 8 4 32
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 9 3 8 30
6 Aurora 20 7 9 4 30
7 Guabirá 20 8 5 7 29
8 Blooming 20 6 9 5 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 8 3 9 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 7 4 9 25
11 Real Oruro 20 6 3 11 21
12 ABB 20 6 2 12 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 6 2 12 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 5 3 12 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 4 4 12 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 2 8 10 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 54 22 +32 45
2 Always Ready 20 47 13 +34 45
3 The Strongest 20 39 22 +17 42
4 Oriente Petrolero 20 36 27 +9 30
5 Guabirá 20 32 39 -7 29
6 Real Oruro 20 32 50 -18 21
7 Aurora 20 31 27 +4 30
8 ABB 20 31 45 -14 20
9 Blooming 20 30 22 +8 27
10 Nacional Potosí 20 30 28 +2 27
11 Real Potosí 20 27 14 +13 32
12 Independiente Petrolero 20 27 35 -8 25
13 Universitario de Vinto 20 26 39 -13 18
14 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 21 37 -16 14
15 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 21 40 -19 20
16 Real Tomayapo 20 15 39 -24 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 1.6 1.4 +0.2 45
2 Real Potosí 20 1.4 1.6 -0.2 32
3 Always Ready 20 — — — 45
4 The Strongest 20 — — — 42
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 — — — 30
6 Aurora 20 — — — 30
7 Guabirá 20 — — — 29
8 Blooming 20 — — — 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 — — — 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 — — — 25
11 Real Oruro 20 — — — 21
12 ABB 20 — — — 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 — — — 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 — — — 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 — — — 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 — — — 14