Prediction Audit: Aurora vs Real Potosí Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aurora

Aug 22, 2026 - 21:15

0 1.48

0 1.46

xG Accuracy: 45%

Real Potosí

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Aurora at 36.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Aurora Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Aurora	36.7%	51.9%	-15.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	27.6%	25.8%	+1.7 pp	Aligned
Real Potosí	35.8%	22.3%	+13.5 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Aurora's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.7%, a difference of 15.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Aurora than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Aurora by 15.3 percentage points (52.0% vs model 36.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 21:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Aurora 36.6% · Draw 27.5% · Real Potosí 35.8%
- xG · Aurora 1.48 — Real Potosí 1.46
Aug 22, 2026 · 20:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Aurora 1.74 · Draw 3.50 · Real Potosí 4.06
- Implied 1X2 · Aurora 51.9% · Draw 25.8% · Real Potosí 22.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 21:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Aurora 1.74 · Draw 3.50 · Real Potosí 4.06
- Implied 1X2 · Aurora 51.9% · Draw 25.8% · Real Potosí 22.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 21:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4243531

Closing Odds 1.74

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Aurora 0–0 Real Potosí

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primera División
Fixture: Aurora vs Real Potosí
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 21:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 27.5% · Away 35.8%
xG (showing): Aurora 1.48 — Real Potosí 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Always Ready	20	13	6	1	45
2	Bolívar	20	14	3	3	45
3	The Strongest	20	12	6	2	42
4	Real Potosí	20	8	8	4	32
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	9	3	8	30
6	Aurora	20	7	9	4	30
7	Guabirá	20	8	5	7	29
8	Blooming	20	6	9	5	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	8	3	9	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	7	4	9	25
11	Real Oruro	20	6	3	11	21
12	ABB	20	6	2	12	20
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	6	2	12	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	20	5	3	12	18
15	Real Tomayapo	20	4	4	12	16
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	2	8	10	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Bolívar	20	54	22	+32	45
2	Always Ready	20	47	13	+34	45
3	The Strongest	20	39	22	+17	42
4	Oriente Petrolero	20	36	27	+9	30
5	Guabirá	20	32	39	-7	29
6	Real Oruro	20	32	50	-18	21
7	Aurora	20	31	27	+4	30
8	ABB	20	31	45	-14	20
9	Blooming	20	30	22	+8	27
10	Nacional Potosí	20	30	28	+2	27
11	Real Potosí	20	27	14	+13	32
12	Independiente Petrolero	20	27	35	-8	25
13	Universitario de Vinto	20	26	39	-13	18
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	21	37	-16	14
15	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	21	40	-19	20
16	Real Tomayapo	20	15	39	-24	16

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Bolívar	20	1.6	1.4	+0.2	45
2	Real Potosí	20	1.4	1.6	-0.2	32
3	Always Ready	20	—	—	—	45
4	The Strongest	20	—	—	—	42
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	—	—	—	30
6	Aurora	20	—	—	—	30
7	Guabirá	20	—	—	—	29
8	Blooming	20	—	—	—	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	—	—	—	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	—	—	—	25
11	Real Oruro	20	—	—	—	21
12	ABB	20	—	—	—	20
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	20	—	—	—	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	20	—	—	—	18
15	Real Tomayapo	20	—	—	—	16
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	—	—	—	14