Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Gimnástica Segoviana vs Unionistas de Salamanca

Prediction Audit: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Unionistas de Salamanca Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gimnástica Segoviana Gimnástica Segoviana
Aug 15, 2026 - 09:00
0 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
Unionistas de Salamanca Unionistas de Salamanca

AI correctly predicted the Unionistas de Salamanca win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Unionistas de Salamanca Unionistas de Salamanca ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Unionistas de Salamanca higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Unionistas de Salamanca -5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gimnástica Segoviana 33.0% 30.5% +2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 26.4% +3.0 pp Aligned
Unionistas de Salamanca 37.7% 43.1% -5.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Unionistas de Salamanca's win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.7%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Unionistas de Salamanca win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Unionistas de Salamanca. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Unionistas de Salamanca higher (43.2% vs model 37.7%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Unionistas de Salamanca win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gimnástica Segoviana 33.0% · Draw 29.4% · Unionistas de Salamanca 37.6%
    • xG · Gimnástica Segoviana 1.25 — Unionistas de Salamanca 1.35
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 08:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gimnástica Segoviana 2.91 · Draw 3.37 · Unionistas de Salamanca 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Gimnástica Segoviana 30.5% · Draw 26.4% · Unionistas de Salamanca 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gimnástica Segoviana 2.91 · Draw 3.37 · Unionistas de Salamanca 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Gimnástica Segoviana 30.5% · Draw 26.4% · Unionistas de Salamanca 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Unionistas de Salamanca win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3338972

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Unionistas de Salamanca win · Gimnástica Segoviana 0–1 Unionistas de Salamanca
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Gimnástica Segoviana vs Unionistas de Salamanca
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 29.3% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Gimnástica Segoviana 1.25 — Unionistas de Salamanca 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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