Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Unionistas de Salamanca vs CD Coria

Prediction Audit: Unionistas de Salamanca vs CD Coria Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Unionistas de Salamanca Unionistas de Salamanca
Aug 11, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
CD Coria CD Coria

The model missed the final outcome (CD Coria win 0–2).

The model had projected Unionistas de Salamanca at 36.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Unionistas de Salamanca CD Coria ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Unionistas de Salamanca higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Unionistas de Salamanca -17.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Unionistas de Salamanca 36.2% 53.4% -17.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 23.7% +5.7 pp Model Higher
CD Coria 34.4% 22.9% +11.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Unionistas de Salamanca's win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.2%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was CD Coria win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Unionistas de Salamanca than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Unionistas de Salamanca; match finished CD Coria

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Unionistas de Salamanca by 17.2 percentage points (53.4% vs model 36.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 11, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Unionistas de Salamanca 36.2% · Draw 29.4% · CD Coria 34.4%
    • xG · Unionistas de Salamanca 1.32 — CD Coria 1.28
  2. Aug 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Unionistas de Salamanca 1.67 · Draw 3.77 · CD Coria 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Unionistas de Salamanca 53.4% · Draw 23.7% · CD Coria 22.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 11, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Unionistas de Salamanca 1.67 · Draw 3.77 · CD Coria 3.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Unionistas de Salamanca 53.4% · Draw 23.7% · CD Coria 22.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 11, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result CD Coria win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3331694

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result CD Coria win · Unionistas de Salamanca 0–2 CD Coria
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Unionistas de Salamanca vs CD Coria
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-11 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.2% · Draw 29.4% · Away 34.4%
  • xG (showing): Unionistas de Salamanca 1.32 — CD Coria 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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