Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Derde Divisie - Saturday / TEC vs DVS 33 Ermelo

Prediction Audit: TEC vs DVS 33 Ermelo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

TEC TEC
Sep 12, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.20
4 1.40
xG Accuracy: 23%
DVS 33 Ermelo DVS 33 Ermelo

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).

The model had projected DVS 33 Ermelo at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 DVS 33 Ermelo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned DVS 33 Ermelo; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 4–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · TEC 1.20 — DVS 33 Ermelo 1.40
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7434307

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · TEC 4–4 DVS 33 Ermelo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Derde Divisie - Saturday - Saturday
  • Fixture: TEC vs DVS 33 Ermelo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): TEC 1.2 — DVS 33 Ermelo 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Derde Divisie - Saturday Derde Divisie - Saturday — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 ACV 6 5 1 0 16
1 Noordwijk 6 5 1 0 16
2 Harkemase Boys 6 5 1 0 16
2 FC Lisse 6 5 0 1 15
3 SC Genemuiden 6 5 0 1 15
3 Rijnvogels 6 4 2 0 14
4 VV Scherpenzeel 6 5 0 1 15
4 Excelsior Maassluis 6 3 2 1 11
5 Excelsior '31 6 4 1 1 13
5 UDI '19 6 3 2 1 11
6 Sportlust '46 6 3 3 0 12
6 GOES 6 3 2 1 11
7 Purmersteijn 6 3 2 1 11
7 Poortugaal 6 3 0 3 9
8 TEC 6 3 1 2 10
8 Dongen 6 3 0 3 9
9 Sparta Nijkerk 6 2 2 2 8
9 Blauw Geel 6 2 2 2 8
10 Hoogeveen 6 2 1 3 7
10 Gemert 6 1 4 1 7
11 ADO '20 6 2 1 3 7
11 Vvsb 6 2 1 3 7
12 DVS 33 Ermelo 6 1 2 3 5
12 Zwaluwen 6 2 1 3 7
13 Dovo 6 1 2 3 5
13 UNA 6 1 3 2 6
14 Staphorst 6 0 3 3 3
14 Groene Ster 6 1 3 2 6
15 Hercules 6 1 0 5 3
15 Roosendaal 6 2 0 4 6
16 Eemdijk 6 1 0 5 3
16 Achilles Veen 6 1 0 5 3
17 Hollandia 6 0 1 5 1
17 TOGB 6 0 2 4 2
18 SVZW 6 0 1 5 1
18 EVV 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 TEC 6 17 14 +3 10
2 Sparta Nijkerk 6 17 14 +3 8
3 Rijnvogels 6 16 6 +10 14
4 Excelsior '31 6 16 6 +10 13
5 ACV 6 15 4 +11 16
6 Dongen 6 15 15 0 9
7 SC Genemuiden 6 14 4 +10 15
8 Sportlust '46 6 14 9 +5 12
9 Harkemase Boys 6 13 7 +6 16
10 GOES 6 13 13 0 11
11 Hollandia 6 13 20 -7 1
12 Noordwijk 6 12 0 +12 16
13 Excelsior Maassluis 6 12 5 +7 11
14 Hoogeveen 6 12 13 -1 7
15 FC Lisse 6 11 5 +6 15
16 VV Scherpenzeel 6 11 7 +4 15
17 Purmersteijn 6 11 7 +4 11
18 ADO '20 6 11 12 -1 7
19 UDI '19 6 10 5 +5 11
20 Blauw Geel 6 10 9 +1 8
21 Gemert 6 10 10 0 7
22 Groene Ster 6 10 13 -3 6
23 UNA 6 9 10 -1 6
24 DVS 33 Ermelo 6 9 12 -3 5
25 SVZW 6 9 20 -11 1
26 Poortugaal 6 8 6 +2 9
27 Staphorst 6 8 12 -4 3
28 Dovo 6 8 13 -5 5
29 TOGB 6 8 15 -7 2
30 Hercules 6 8 20 -12 3
31 Vvsb 6 7 10 -3 7
32 Roosendaal 6 7 11 -4 6
33 EVV 6 7 16 -9 1
34 Achilles Veen 6 7 18 -11 3
35 Eemdijk 6 7 19 -12 3
36 Zwaluwen 6 4 9 -5 7
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