Predictions / Football / Iran. Persian Gulf Pro League / Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak

Prediction Audit: Esteghlal FC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC
Aug 14, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 35%
Mes Shahr-e Babak Mes Shahr-e Babak

AI correctly predicted the Esteghlal FC win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Esteghlal FC Esteghlal FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Esteghlal FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Esteghlal FC -32.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Esteghlal FC 39.9% 72.0% -32.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 19.8% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Mes Shahr-e Babak 30.6% 8.2% +22.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Esteghlal FC's win probability at 72.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 32.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Esteghlal FC win 4–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Esteghlal FC higher (72.0% vs model 39.9%, 32.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Esteghlal FC win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Esteghlal FC 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 30.6%
    • xG · Esteghlal FC 1.40 — Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.20
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Esteghlal FC 1.25 · Draw 4.55 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 11.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Esteghlal FC 72.0% · Draw 19.8% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 8.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Esteghlal FC 1.25 · Draw 4.55 · Mes Shahr-e Babak 11.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Esteghlal FC 72.0% · Draw 19.8% · Mes Shahr-e Babak 8.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Esteghlal FC win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3333106

Closing Odds 1.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Esteghlal FC win · Esteghlal FC 4–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Esteghlal FC; market prices Esteghlal FC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Esteghlal FC 1.40 xG vs Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.20 → Esteghlal FC 39.9%
  • Market: Esteghlal FC ~72.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Persian Gulf Pro League Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tractor Sazi 7 5 1 1 16
2 Esteghlal FC 7 4 3 0 15
3 Persepolis FC 6 4 1 1 13
4 Aluminium Arak 6 3 3 0 12
5 Sepahan FC 6 3 1 2 10
6 Gol Gohar 7 3 1 3 10
7 Foolad FC 6 2 3 1 9
8 Paykan 7 2 2 3 8
9 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 2 2 3 8
10 Chadormalu SC 7 2 2 3 8
11 Fajr Sepasi 6 1 4 1 7
12 Malavan 6 2 1 3 7
13 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 1 3 2 6
14 ZOB Ahan 6 1 3 2 6
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 1 3 3 6
16 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 1 2 4 5
17 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 0 5 2 5
18 Sanat Naft 7 0 4 3 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Persepolis FC 6 12 3 +9 13
2 Esteghlal FC 7 9 1 +8 15
3 Tractor Sazi 7 8 1 +7 16
4 Aluminium Arak 6 8 3 +5 12
5 Kheybar Khorramabad 6 8 8 0 6
6 Gol Gohar 7 7 7 0 10
7 Shams Azar Qazvin 7 6 9 -3 5
8 Foolad FC 6 5 3 +2 9
9 Sepahan FC 6 5 4 +1 10
10 Paykan 7 5 6 -1 8
11 Malavan 6 5 8 -3 7
12 Mes Shahr-e Babak 7 5 10 -5 5
13 Nassaji Mazandaran 7 4 6 -2 8
14 Chadormalu SC 7 4 9 -5 8
15 Esteghlal Khuzestan 7 4 9 -5 6
16 Fajr Sepasi 6 3 3 0 7
17 ZOB Ahan 6 3 5 -2 6
18 Sanat Naft 7 2 8 -6 4