AI correctly predicted the Toledo win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Toledo Toledo ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 50.3% | 71.3% | -21.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.0% | 18.8% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
| La Solana | 21.7% | 9.9% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Toledo's win probability at 71.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.3%, a difference of 21.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Toledo win 4–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Toledo attacking xG significantly stronger (1.61 vs 0.99)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Toledo higher (71.3% vs model 50.3%, 21.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Toledo win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Toledo 50.2% · Draw 28.0% · La Solana 21.7%
- xG · Toledo 1.61 — La Solana 0.99
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Toledo 1.27 · Draw 4.81 · La Solana 9.15
- Implied 1X2 · Toledo 71.3% · Draw 18.8% · La Solana 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Toledo 1.27 · Draw 4.81 · La Solana 9.15
- Implied 1X2 · Toledo 71.3% · Draw 18.8% · La Solana 9.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Toledo win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Marchamalo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Noblejas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Torrijos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Tarancón | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Illescas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Almansa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Toledo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | La Solana | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Socuéllamos | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | CD Villa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Quintanar del Rey | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarancón | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Marchamalo | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Noblejas | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Toledo | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 5 |
| 6 | Almansa | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Quintanar del Rey | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 8 | Manchego | 3 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 | La Solana | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Guadalajara II | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Torrijos | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Illescas | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Villacañas | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | CD Villa | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Socuéllamos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
