Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 / Almansa vs Huracán Balazote

Prediction Audit: Almansa vs Huracán Balazote Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Almansa Almansa
Sep 27, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 60%
Huracán Balazote Huracán Balazote

AI correctly predicted the Almansa win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Almansa Almansa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Almansa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Almansa -14.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Almansa 38.0% 52.5% -14.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.9% +1.7 pp Aligned
Huracán Balazote 32.4% 19.6% +12.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Almansa's win probability at 52.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Almansa win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Almansa than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Almansa higher (52.5% vs model 38.0%, 14.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Almansa win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Almansa 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Huracán Balazote 32.4%
    • xG · Almansa 1.36 — Huracán Balazote 1.24
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 09:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Almansa 1.72 · Draw 3.24 · Huracán Balazote 4.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Almansa 52.5% · Draw 27.9% · Huracán Balazote 19.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Almansa 1.72 · Draw 3.24 · Huracán Balazote 4.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Almansa 52.5% · Draw 27.9% · Huracán Balazote 19.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Almansa win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 27/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10083955

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Almansa win · Almansa 3–1 Huracán Balazote
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
  • Fixture: Almansa vs Huracán Balazote
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Almansa 1.36 — Huracán Balazote 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +12.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Matches Track Almansa Next Match Prediction Track Huracán Balazote Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Manchego 3 3 0 0 9
2 Marchamalo 3 2 1 0 7
3 Noblejas 3 2 1 0 7
4 Torrijos 3 2 1 0 7
5 Tarancón 4 2 0 2 6
6 Villarrobledo 3 1 2 0 5
7 Illescas 3 1 2 0 5
8 Almansa 3 1 1 1 4
9 Toledo 3 1 1 1 4
10 Villacañas 3 1 1 1 4
11 La Solana 3 1 0 2 3
12 Socuéllamos 3 0 3 0 3
13 CD Villa 3 1 0 2 3
14 Quintanar del Rey 3 0 2 1 2
15 Villarrubia 3 0 2 1 2
16 San Clemente 3 0 2 1 2
17 Guadalajara II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Huracán Balazote 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tarancón 4 8 5 +3 6
2 Marchamalo 3 6 2 +4 7
3 Noblejas 3 6 4 +2 7
4 Toledo 3 6 5 +1 4
5 Villarrobledo 3 5 1 +4 5
6 Almansa 3 5 3 +2 4
7 Quintanar del Rey 3 5 7 -2 2
8 Manchego 3 4 0 +4 9
9 La Solana 3 4 4 0 3
10 Guadalajara II 4 4 10 -6 1
11 Torrijos 3 3 1 +2 7
12 Illescas 3 3 2 +1 5
13 Villacañas 3 3 2 +1 4
14 CD Villa 3 2 4 -2 3
15 Villarrubia 3 2 6 -4 2
16 San Clemente 3 2 6 -4 2
17 Socuéllamos 3 1 1 0 3
18 Huracán Balazote 3 0 6 -6 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 Predictions