AI correctly predicted the Yagüe win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Yagüe Yagüe ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yagüe | 41.9% | 63.6% | -21.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 21.6% | +7.7 pp | Model Higher |
| River Ebro | 28.8% | 14.8% | +14.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Yagüe's win probability at 63.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 21.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yagüe win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yagüe higher (63.6% vs model 41.9%, 21.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yagüe win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yagüe 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · River Ebro 28.8%
- xG · Yagüe 1.44 — River Ebro 1.16
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yagüe 1.42 · Draw 4.18 · River Ebro 6.08
- Implied 1X2 · Yagüe 63.6% · Draw 21.6% · River Ebro 14.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Yagüe 1.42 · Draw 4.18 · River Ebro 6.08
- Implied 1X2 · Yagüe 63.6% · Draw 21.6% · River Ebro 14.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Yagüe win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Calzada | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Haro Deportivo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Berceo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Calahorra | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Agoncillo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Anguiano | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Comillas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Cenicero | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Alfaro | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Pradejón | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Varea | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Oyonesa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Casalarreina | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | River Ebro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Calasancio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | Vianés | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berceo | 3 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Agoncillo | 4 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | La Calzada | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Calahorra | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Haro Deportivo | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cenicero | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Alfaro | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Calasancio | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Pradejón | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | River Ebro | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 | Anguiano | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Comillas | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Vianés | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Casalarreina | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | San Marcial | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 17 | Varea | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Oyonesa | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
