AI correctly predicted the San Bartolomé win.
The match finished 4–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
B-
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 San Bartolomé San Bartolomé ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (San Bartolomé win 4–2).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 03:11 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · San Bartolomé 1.34 — Estrella 1.26
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Bartolomé win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Bartolomé win · San Bartolomé 4–2 Estrella
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | San Miguel | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Panadería Pulido | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | UD San Fernando | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Mensajero | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Las Palmas III | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | San Bartolomé | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Marino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Tenerife C | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Los Llanos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Estrella | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Villa Santa Brígida | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Anaza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Laguna de Duero | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 17 | Villaverde Norte | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Playas Sotavento | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panadería Pulido | 5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | Marino | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 7 |
| 3 | UD San Fernando | 4 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 4 | Tenerife C | 5 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
| 5 | Las Palmas III | 5 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 | Real Unión de Tenerife | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | San Miguel | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 | San Bartolomé | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 9 | Estrella | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Unión Sur Yaiza | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Laguna de Duero | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 1 |
| 12 | Lanzarote | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 | Los Llanos | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Villa Santa Brígida | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 15 | Anaza | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Mensajero | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 17 | Villaverde Norte | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
| 18 | Playas Sotavento | 5 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 |
