Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 / Constància vs Alcúdia

Prediction Audit: Constància vs Alcúdia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Constància Constància
Sep 26, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.57
0 1.03
xG Accuracy: 67%
Alcúdia Alcúdia

AI correctly predicted the Constància win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Constància Constància ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Constància higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Constància -12.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Constància 48.3% 61.0% -12.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.4% 22.7% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Alcúdia 23.3% 16.3% +7.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Constància's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.3%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Constància win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Constància than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Constància attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Constància higher (61.0% vs model 48.3%, 12.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Constància win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Constància 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Alcúdia 23.3%
    • xG · Constància 1.57 — Alcúdia 1.03
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Constància 1.48 · Draw 3.98 · Alcúdia 5.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Constància 61.0% · Draw 22.7% · Alcúdia 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Constància 1.48 · Draw 3.98 · Alcúdia 5.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Constància 61.0% · Draw 22.7% · Alcúdia 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Constància win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10116439

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Constància win · Constància 2–0 Alcúdia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 11
  • Fixture: Constància vs Alcúdia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 23.3%
  • xG (showing): Constància 1.57 — Alcúdia 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 3 1 0 10
2 Manacor 3 3 0 0 9
3 Porreres 4 3 0 1 9
4 Constància 4 2 1 1 7
5 PE Sant Jordi 3 2 1 0 7
6 Llosetense 4 2 1 1 7
7 Cardassar 4 2 1 1 7
8 Alcúdia 4 2 0 2 6
9 Platges Calvià 4 2 0 2 6
10 Santanyí 4 1 3 0 6
11 Formentera 3 1 2 0 5
12 Mercadal 4 1 2 1 5
13 Andratx 4 1 2 1 5
14 Arenal 4 1 0 3 3
15 Sineu 3 0 0 3 0
16 Binissalem 3 0 0 3 0
17 Migjorn 3 0 0 3 0
18 Inter Ibiza 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Manacor 3 9 3 +6 9
2 Alcúdia 4 8 5 +3 6
3 PE Sant Jordi 3 7 4 +3 7
4 Porreres 4 7 5 +2 9
5 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4 6 2 +4 10
6 Constància 4 6 2 +4 7
7 Platges Calvià 4 6 4 +2 6
8 Llosetense 4 5 2 +3 7
9 Mercadal 4 5 4 +1 5
10 Cardassar 4 4 2 +2 7
11 Formentera 3 4 2 +2 5
12 Santanyí 4 4 3 +1 6
13 Arenal 4 4 8 -4 3
14 Andratx 4 3 4 -1 5
15 Sineu 3 2 7 -5 0
16 Binissalem 3 2 8 -6 0
17 Migjorn 3 2 9 -7 0
18 Inter Ibiza 4 2 12 -10 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Predictions