Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 / Conil vs Cádiz II

Prediction Audit: Conil vs Cádiz II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Conil Conil
Sep 20, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 59%
Cádiz II Cádiz II

AI correctly predicted the Cádiz II win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cádiz II Cádiz II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Cádiz II considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Cádiz II +9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Conil 33.3% 38.5% -5.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 34.0% -4.4 pp Aligned
Cádiz II 37.1% 27.4% +9.6 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Cádiz II's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.4%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cádiz II win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Cádiz II.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cádiz II more conservatively (27.5% vs model 37.1%, 9.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cádiz II win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Conil 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Cádiz II 37.0%
    • xG · Conil 1.26 — Cádiz II 1.34
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Conil 2.35 · Draw 2.66 · Cádiz II 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Conil 38.5% · Draw 34.0% · Cádiz II 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Conil 2.35 · Draw 2.66 · Cádiz II 3.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Conil 38.5% · Draw 34.0% · Cádiz II 27.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cádiz II win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8685833

Closing Odds 3.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cádiz II win · Conil 0–2 Cádiz II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 10
  • Fixture: Conil vs Cádiz II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Conil 1.26 — Cádiz II 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 41.5% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +11.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dos Hermanas 4 3 1 0 10
2 Portuense 3 3 0 0 9
3 Betis C 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tomares 4 2 1 1 7
5 Egabrense 3 2 0 1 6
6 Pozoblanco 4 2 0 2 6
7 Xerez Deportivo 3 2 0 1 6
8 Utrera 3 2 0 1 6
9 Cádiz II 4 1 2 1 5
10 Chiclana 3 1 1 1 4
11 Ceuta II 4 1 1 2 4
12 Linense 3 1 0 2 3
13 Sevilla III 3 1 0 2 3
14 Recreativo Huelva 3 1 0 2 3
15 Conil 3 1 0 2 3
16 Bollullos 3 0 1 2 1
17 San Roque Lepe 3 0 1 2 1
18 Córdoba II 4 0 1 3 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Betis C 3 9 5 +4 7
2 Dos Hermanas 4 8 2 +6 10
3 Egabrense 3 8 6 +2 6
4 Portuense 3 6 1 +5 9
5 Pozoblanco 4 5 3 +2 6
6 Tomares 4 5 4 +1 7
7 Xerez Deportivo 3 4 3 +1 6
8 Cádiz II 4 4 3 +1 5
9 Utrera 3 4 4 0 6
10 Linense 3 4 5 -1 3
11 Sevilla III 3 4 6 -2 3
12 Recreativo Huelva 3 4 7 -3 3
13 Ceuta II 4 3 5 -2 4
14 Bollullos 3 3 6 -3 1
15 Córdoba II 4 3 8 -5 1
16 Chiclana 3 2 2 0 4
17 San Roque Lepe 3 2 5 -3 1
18 Conil 3 1 4 -3 3
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 Predictions