Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 / Bembibre vs Atlético Mansillés

Prediction Audit: Bembibre vs Atlético Mansillés Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bembibre Bembibre
Sep 20, 2026 - 10:30
0 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 59%
Atlético Mansillés Atlético Mansillés

AI correctly predicted the Atlético Mansillés win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atlético Mansillés Atlético Mansillés ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Atlético Mansillés win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bembibre 1.26 — Atlético Mansillés 1.34
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Atlético Mansillés win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8662250

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atlético Mansillés win · Bembibre 0–2 Atlético Mansillés
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
  • Fixture: Bembibre vs Atlético Mansillés
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Bembibre 1.26 — Atlético Mansillés 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Burgos Promesas 3 3 0 0 9
2 UD Santa Marta 3 3 0 0 9
3 La Virgen del Camino 4 3 0 1 9
4 Cultural Leonesa II 3 3 0 0 9
5 Atlético Mansillés 3 2 1 0 7
6 Arandina 4 2 1 1 7
7 Cristo Atlético 4 2 1 1 7
8 Calasanz de Soria 4 2 0 2 6
9 Almazán 3 1 2 0 5
10 Villaralbo 4 1 1 2 4
11 Bembibre 3 1 1 1 4
12 Guijuelo 3 1 0 2 3
13 Palencia CF 3 1 0 2 3
14 Unionistas II 4 0 2 2 2
15 Mirandés II 3 0 1 2 1
16 Turégano 4 0 1 3 1
17 Salamanca II 4 0 1 3 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Burgos Promesas 3 7 0 +7 9
2 La Virgen del Camino 4 7 3 +4 9
3 Villaralbo 4 7 5 +2 4
4 UD Santa Marta 3 6 1 +5 9
5 Arandina 4 6 5 +1 7
6 Atlético Mansillés 3 5 2 +3 7
7 Almazán 3 5 4 +1 5
8 Calasanz de Soria 4 5 7 -2 6
9 Salamanca II 4 5 11 -6 1
10 Cultural Leonesa II 3 4 0 +4 9
11 Unionistas II 4 4 6 -2 2
12 Cristo Atlético 4 3 3 0 7
13 Bembibre 3 3 3 0 4
14 Guijuelo 3 3 3 0 3
15 Palencia CF 3 2 4 -2 3
16 Turégano 4 2 6 -4 1
17 Mirandés II 3 1 4 -3 1
18 Colegios Diocesanos 3 0 8 -8 0
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Predictions