Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 / Real Aranjuez vs Trival Valderas

Prediction Audit: Real Aranjuez vs Trival Valderas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Aranjuez Real Aranjuez
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.24
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 78%
Trival Valderas Trival Valderas

AI correctly predicted the Trival Valderas win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trival Valderas Trival Valderas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Real Aranjuez considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Real Aranjuez +9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Real Aranjuez 32.4% 23.4% +9.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.7% -0.1 pp Aligned
Trival Valderas 38.0% 46.9% -8.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Real Aranjuez's win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Trival Valderas win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Real Aranjuez.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Trival Valderas more conservatively (29.0% vs model 38.0%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Trival Valderas win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Real Aranjuez 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Trival Valderas 38.0%
    • xG · Real Aranjuez 1.24 — Trival Valderas 1.36
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Real Aranjuez 3.87 · Draw 3.05 · Trival Valderas 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Aranjuez 23.4% · Draw 29.7% · Trival Valderas 46.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Real Aranjuez 3.87 · Draw 3.05 · Trival Valderas 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Aranjuez 23.4% · Draw 29.7% · Trival Valderas 46.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Trival Valderas win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10104825

Closing Odds 3.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Trival Valderas win · Real Aranjuez 1–2 Trival Valderas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
  • Fixture: Real Aranjuez vs Trival Valderas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Real Aranjuez 1.24 — Trival Valderas 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.4% · Implied: 46.0% · Probability edge: +8.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Trival Valderas 4 2 2 0 8
2 Colonia Moscardó 3 2 1 0 7
3 Las Rozas 3 2 1 0 7
4 Móstoles 3 2 1 0 7
5 Leganés II 4 2 0 2 6
6 Cala Pozuelo 4 2 0 2 6
7 Galapagar 3 1 2 0 5
8 RC Alcobendas 3 1 2 0 5
9 Unión Adarve 3 1 2 0 5
10 Parla Escuela 3 1 1 1 4
11 Fuenlabrada 3 1 1 1 4
12 Pozuelo Alarcón 3 0 3 0 3
13 Torrejón 3 1 0 2 3
14 SS Reyes II 3 1 0 2 3
15 Alcobendas Sport 3 0 2 1 2
16 Rayo Vallecano II 3 0 1 2 1
17 Real Aranjuez 4 0 1 3 1
18 Villanueva Pardillo 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Leganés II 4 8 5 +3 6
2 Colonia Moscardó 3 7 2 +5 7
3 Las Rozas 3 7 4 +3 7
4 Galapagar 3 7 4 +3 5
5 RC Alcobendas 3 7 4 +3 5
6 Trival Valderas 4 6 3 +3 8
7 Parla Escuela 3 5 5 0 4
8 Cala Pozuelo 4 5 6 -1 6
9 Móstoles 3 4 1 +3 7
10 Unión Adarve 3 4 2 +2 5
11 Fuenlabrada 3 4 4 0 4
12 Real Aranjuez 4 4 10 -6 1
13 Pozuelo Alarcón 3 3 3 0 3
14 Rayo Vallecano II 3 3 7 -4 1
15 Torrejón 3 2 4 -2 3
16 SS Reyes II 3 2 5 -3 3
17 Villanueva Pardillo 3 2 10 -8 0
18 Alcobendas Sport 3 1 2 -1 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 Predictions