Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 / Crevillente vs Saguntino

Prediction Audit: Crevillente vs Saguntino Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Crevillente Crevillente
Sep 27, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.13
2 1.47
xG Accuracy: 68%
Saguntino Saguntino

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Saguntino at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Saguntino Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Saguntino considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Saguntino +9.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Crevillente 27.5% 36.2% -8.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 29.8% -0.6 pp Aligned
Saguntino 43.4% 34.0% +9.3 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Saguntino's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Saguntino.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Saguntino; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Saguntino by 9.3 percentage points (34.1% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Crevillente 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Saguntino 43.3%
    • xG · Crevillente 1.13 — Saguntino 1.47
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Crevillente 2.50 · Draw 3.04 · Saguntino 2.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Crevillente 36.2% · Draw 29.8% · Saguntino 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Crevillente 2.50 · Draw 3.04 · Saguntino 2.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Crevillente 36.2% · Draw 29.8% · Saguntino 34.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10106279

Closing Odds 2.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Crevillente 2–2 Saguntino
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 6
  • Fixture: Crevillente vs Saguntino
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Crevillente 1.13 — Saguntino 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 40.4% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +13.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Villarreal III 4 3 0 1 9
2 Eldense B 4 2 2 0 8
3 Torrent 4 2 1 1 7
4 Levante II 4 2 1 1 7
5 Vall de Uxó 3 2 1 0 7
6 Hércules II 4 2 1 1 7
7 Crevillente 3 1 2 0 5
8 Acero 4 1 2 1 5
9 Buñol 3 1 2 0 5
10 Roda 3 1 1 1 4
11 Soneja 3 1 1 1 4
12 Saguntino 3 1 0 2 3
13 Ontinyent 1931 3 1 0 2 3
14 SC Torrevieja 3 1 0 2 3
15 Atzeneta 4 0 2 2 2
16 Utiel 3 0 2 1 2
17 Jove Español 4 0 2 2 2
18 Torrellano 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Torrent 4 8 5 +3 7
2 Hércules II 4 7 5 +2 7
3 Villarreal III 4 6 3 +3 9
4 Eldense B 4 5 2 +3 8
5 Levante II 4 5 2 +3 7
6 Vall de Uxó 3 4 1 +3 7
7 Crevillente 3 4 3 +1 5
8 Acero 4 4 3 +1 5
9 Roda 3 4 4 0 4
10 Soneja 3 4 5 -1 4
11 Jove Español 4 4 9 -5 2
12 Buñol 3 3 2 +1 5
13 Saguntino 3 2 3 -1 3
14 Ontinyent 1931 3 2 4 -2 3
15 Atzeneta 4 2 4 -2 2
16 SC Torrevieja 3 2 5 -3 3
17 Torrellano 3 2 6 -4 0
18 Utiel 3 1 3 -2 2
Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 Predictions