AI correctly predicted the Tropezón win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tropezón Tropezón ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropezón | 46.8% | 62.9% | -16.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 22.9% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Revilla | 24.5% | 14.2% | +10.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Tropezón's win probability at 62.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tropezón win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Tropezón than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Tropezón attacking xG significantly stronger (1.54 vs 1.06)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tropezón higher (62.9% vs model 46.8%, 16.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tropezón win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tropezón 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Revilla 24.6%
- xG · Tropezón 1.54 — Revilla 1.06
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tropezón 1.44 · Draw 3.95 · Revilla 6.38
- Implied 1X2 · Tropezón 62.9% · Draw 22.9% · Revilla 14.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tropezón 1.44 · Draw 3.95 · Revilla 6.38
- Implied 1X2 · Tropezón 62.9% · Draw 22.9% · Revilla 14.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tropezón win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laredo | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Bezana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Vimenor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Tropezón | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Revilla | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Torina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Cayón | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Castro | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Sámano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Selaya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Escobedo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Velarde | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarnizo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Atlético Mineros | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Barquereño | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | Atlético Albericia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Solares | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laredo | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Revilla | 3 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 |
| 3 | Bezana | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Torina | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 | Vimenor | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Tropezón | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 7 | Sámano | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Guarnizo | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Castro | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 10 | Cayón | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 11 | Escobedo | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Velarde | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Selaya | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Barquereño | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 15 | Atlético Mineros | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 17 | Atlético Albericia | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Solares | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
