The model missed the final outcome (Solares win 0–2).
The model had projected Atlético Albericia at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Atlético Albericia Solares ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Albericia | 36.6% | 56.1% | -19.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Solares | 33.8% | 18.9% | +14.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Atlético Albericia's win probability at 56.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Solares win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Atlético Albericia than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Atlético Albericia; match finished Solares
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atlético Albericia by 19.6 percentage points (56.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlético Albericia 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Solares 33.8%
- xG · Atlético Albericia 1.33 — Solares 1.27
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Albericia 1.60 · Draw 3.60 · Solares 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Albericia 56.1% · Draw 24.9% · Solares 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Albericia 1.60 · Draw 3.60 · Solares 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Albericia 56.1% · Draw 24.9% · Solares 18.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Solares win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laredo | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Bezana | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Vimenor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Tropezón | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Revilla | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Torina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Cayón | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Castro | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Sámano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Selaya | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Escobedo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Velarde | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarnizo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Atlético Mineros | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Barquereño | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | Atlético Albericia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Solares | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laredo | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Revilla | 3 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 |
| 3 | Bezana | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Torina | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 | Vimenor | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Tropezón | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 7 | Sámano | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 8 | Guarnizo | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Castro | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 10 | Cayón | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 11 | Escobedo | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Velarde | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Selaya | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Barquereño | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 15 | Atlético Mineros | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 17 | Atlético Albericia | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Solares | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
