Predictions / Football / Poland. Cup / Górnik Polkowice vs Polonia Warszawa

Prediction Audit: Górnik Polkowice vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Górnik Polkowice Górnik Polkowice
Sep 02, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa

The model missed the final outcome (Polonia Warszawa win 0–1).

The model had projected Górnik Polkowice at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Górnik Polkowice Polonia Warszawa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Polonia Warszawa higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Polonia Warszawa -24.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Górnik Polkowice 35.2% 19.6% +15.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.0% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Polonia Warszawa 35.2% 59.4% -24.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Polonia Warszawa's win probability at 59.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 24.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Polonia Warszawa win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Górnik Polkowice; match finished Polonia Warszawa

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Górnik Polkowice by 24.2 percentage points (59.4% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Górnik Polkowice 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Polonia Warszawa 35.2%
    • xG · Górnik Polkowice 1.30 — Polonia Warszawa 1.30
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Górnik Polkowice 4.57 · Draw 4.28 · Polonia Warszawa 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Górnik Polkowice 19.6% · Draw 21.0% · Polonia Warszawa 59.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Górnik Polkowice 4.57 · Draw 4.28 · Polonia Warszawa 1.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Górnik Polkowice 19.6% · Draw 21.0% · Polonia Warszawa 59.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Polonia Warszawa win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5620907

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Polonia Warszawa win · Górnik Polkowice 0–1 Polonia Warszawa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Górnik Polkowice vs Polonia Warszawa
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Górnik Polkowice 1.3 — Polonia Warszawa 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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