Predictions / Football / Poland. Cup / Sokół Ostróda vs Sokół Kleczew

Prediction Audit: Sokół Ostróda vs Sokół Kleczew Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sokół Ostróda Sokół Ostróda
Sep 02, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Sokół Kleczew Sokół Kleczew

The model missed the final outcome (Sokół Kleczew win 1–2).

The model had projected Sokół Ostróda at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sokół Ostróda Sokół Kleczew ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sokół Kleczew higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sokół Kleczew -23.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sokół Ostróda 36.1% 23.7% +12.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 18.6% +11.0 pp Model Edge
Sokół Kleczew 34.2% 57.6% -23.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sokół Kleczew's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sokół Kleczew win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sokół Ostróda; match finished Sokół Kleczew

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sokół Ostróda by 23.4 percentage points (59.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sokół Ostróda 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sokół Kleczew 34.2%
    • xG · Sokół Ostróda 1.32 — Sokół Kleczew 1.28
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sokół Ostróda 3.74 · Draw 4.76 · Sokół Kleczew 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokół Ostróda 23.7% · Draw 18.6% · Sokół Kleczew 57.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sokół Ostróda 3.74 · Draw 4.76 · Sokół Kleczew 1.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Sokół Ostróda 23.7% · Draw 18.6% · Sokół Kleczew 57.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sokół Kleczew win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5625288

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sokół Kleczew win · Sokół Ostróda 1–2 Sokół Kleczew
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Sokół Ostróda vs Sokół Kleczew
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sokół Ostróda 1.32 — Sokół Kleczew 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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