The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Energetik at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Energetik Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energetik | 46.8% | 70.6% | -23.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 17.9% | +10.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Zaqatala | 24.5% | 11.5% | +13.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Energetik's win probability at 70.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Energetik; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Energetik by 23.8 percentage points (70.6% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Energetik 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Zaqatala 24.6%
- xG · Energetik 1.54 — Zaqatala 1.06
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Energetik 1.26 · Draw 4.96 · Zaqatala 7.76
- Implied 1X2 · Energetik 70.6% · Draw 17.9% · Zaqatala 11.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Energetik 1.26 · Draw 4.96 · Zaqatala 7.76
- Implied 1X2 · Energetik 70.6% · Draw 17.9% · Zaqatala 11.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Birinci Dasta — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Energetik | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Karvan | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Zaqatala | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Səbail | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | MOIK | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Energetik | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 8 | Şimal | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
