The model missed the final outcome (Al Ittihad win 0–2).
The model had projected AL Masry at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 AL Masry Al Ittihad ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Masry | 39.9% | 47.4% | -7.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 36.1% | 33.2% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Al Ittihad | 24.0% | 19.5% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates AL Masry's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Al Ittihad win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on AL Masry. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.77, 2 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned AL Masry; match finished Al Ittihad
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on AL Masry by 7.5 percentage points (47.4% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AL Masry 39.9% · Draw 36.1% · Al Ittihad 24.0%
- xG · AL Masry 1.03 — Al Ittihad 0.74
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AL Masry 2.01 · Draw 2.87 · Al Ittihad 4.89
- Implied 1X2 · AL Masry 47.4% · Draw 33.2% · Al Ittihad 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AL Masry 2.01 · Draw 2.87 · Al Ittihad 4.89
- Implied 1X2 · AL Masry 47.4% · Draw 33.2% · Al Ittihad 19.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 15, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Ittihad win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Future FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Petrojet | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | El Geish | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Masr | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Enppi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Ahly | 5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 13 |
| 4 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 13 |
| 5 | Petrojet | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Future FC | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 9 | Enppi | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | El Geish | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Masr | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 3 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 5 | 4.7 | 1.0 | +3.7 | 15 |
| 2 | AL Masry | 5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | +2.1 | 6 |
| 3 | Petrojet | 5 | 5.3 | 3.7 | +1.6 | 7 |
| 4 | National Bank of Egypt | 5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 6 |
| 5 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 5 | 5.5 | 4.1 | +1.4 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Ahly | 5 | 4.2 | 3.0 | +1.2 | 13 |
| 7 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | +0.3 | 5 |
| 8 | Smouha SC | 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | +0.3 | 4 |
| 9 | Asyut Petrol | 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 2 |
| 10 | Future FC | 5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | +0.1 | 10 |
| 11 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | +0.1 | 10 |
| 12 | El Geish | 5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | -0.1 | 7 |
| 13 | Masr | 5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | -0.5 | 7 |
| 14 | Enppi | 5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 4 |
| 15 | Abu Qair Semad | 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 16 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 3.4 | 4.4 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 17 | El Gouna FC | 5 | 3.2 | 4.9 | -1.7 | 2 |
| 18 | Olympic El Qanah | 5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | -2.1 | 6 |
| 19 | Zamalek SC | 5 | 2.6 | 5.0 | -2.4 | 13 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 5 | 1.9 | 5.0 | -3.1 | 1 |
