Predictions / Football / Egypt. Premier League / Asyut Petrol vs Future FC

Prediction Audit: Asyut Petrol vs Future FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Asyut Petrol Asyut Petrol
Sep 15, 2026 - 14:00
0 0.91
2 0.88
xG Accuracy: 57%
Future FC Future FC

The model missed the final outcome (Future FC win 0–2).

The model had projected Draw at 36.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Future FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Future FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Future FC -20.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Asyut Petrol 32.6% 17.4% +15.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 36.5% 31.2% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Future FC 30.9% 51.4% -20.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Future FC's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 30.9%, a difference of 20.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Future FC win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.79, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Future FC
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 20.5 percentage points (57.0% vs model 36.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Asyut Petrol 32.6% · Draw 36.5% · Future FC 30.9%
    • xG · Asyut Petrol 0.91 — Future FC 0.88
  2. Sep 15, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Asyut Petrol 5.48 · Draw 3.05 · Future FC 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Asyut Petrol 17.4% · Draw 31.2% · Future FC 51.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Asyut Petrol 5.48 · Draw 3.05 · Future FC 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Asyut Petrol 17.4% · Draw 31.2% · Future FC 51.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Future FC win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7701950

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Future FC win · Asyut Petrol 0–2 Future FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Asyut Petrol vs Future FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.6% · Draw 36.5% · Away 30.9%
  • xG (showing): Asyut Petrol 0.91 — Future FC 0.88 (total xG ≈ 1.79)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 73.3% · Over 2.5 26.7%); BTTS No (Yes 36.7% · No 63.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.7% · No 63.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (16.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 5 0 0 15
2 Zamalek SC 5 4 1 0 13
3 Al Ahly 5 4 1 0 13
4 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 4 0 1 12
5 Future FC 5 3 1 1 10
6 Al Ittihad 5 3 1 1 10
7 El Mokawloon 5 2 1 2 7
8 Petrojet 5 2 1 2 7
9 El Geish 5 2 1 2 7
10 Masr 5 2 1 2 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 1 3 1 6
12 AL Masry 5 2 0 3 6
13 National Bank of Egypt 5 2 0 3 6
14 Wadi Degla 5 1 2 2 5
15 Enppi 5 1 1 3 4
16 Smouha SC 5 1 1 3 4
17 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 0 4 3
18 El Gouna FC 5 0 2 3 2
19 Asyut Petrol 5 0 2 3 2
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 10 3 +7 12
2 Pyramids FC 5 9 1 +8 15
3 Al Ahly 5 9 3 +6 13
4 Zamalek SC 5 8 1 +7 13
5 Petrojet 5 8 8 0 7
6 Future FC 5 7 4 +3 10
7 Al Ittihad 5 6 3 +3 10
8 El Mokawloon 5 6 5 +1 7
9 Enppi 5 6 9 -3 4
10 El Geish 5 5 5 0 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 5 5 0 6
12 AL Masry 5 5 7 -2 6
13 Masr 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Wadi Degla 5 4 5 -1 5
15 National Bank of Egypt 5 4 7 -3 6
16 El Gouna FC 5 3 6 -3 2
17 Smouha SC 5 1 4 -3 4
18 Asyut Petrol 5 1 5 -4 2
19 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 8 -7 3
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1 9 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 4.7 1.0 +3.7 15
2 AL Masry 5 4.8 2.7 +2.1 6
3 Petrojet 5 5.3 3.7 +1.6 7
4 National Bank of Egypt 5 4.0 2.4 +1.6 6
5 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 5.5 4.1 +1.4 12
6 Al Ahly 5 4.2 3.0 +1.2 13
7 Wadi Degla 5 3.6 3.3 +0.3 5
8 Smouha SC 5 2.2 1.9 +0.3 4
9 Asyut Petrol 5 1.9 1.7 +0.2 2
10 Future FC 5 4.6 4.5 +0.1 10
11 Al Ittihad 5 3.7 3.6 +0.1 10
12 El Geish 5 2.9 3.0 -0.1 7
13 Masr 5 3.1 3.6 -0.5 7
14 Enppi 5 4.9 5.7 -0.8 4
15 Abu Qair Semad 5 0.9 1.7 -0.8 3
16 El Mokawloon 5 3.4 4.4 -1.0 7
17 El Gouna FC 5 3.2 4.9 -1.7 2
18 Olympic El Qanah 5 2.4 4.5 -2.1 6
19 Zamalek SC 5 2.6 5.0 -2.4 13
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1.9 5.0 -3.1 1