Predictions / Football / Egypt. Premier League / National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla

Prediction Audit: National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

National Bank of Egypt National Bank of Egypt
Sep 07, 2026 - 17:00
3 0.98
1 0.51
xG Accuracy: 50%
Ghazl El Mehalla Ghazl El Mehalla

AI correctly predicted the National Bank of Egypt win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 National Bank of Egypt National Bank of Egypt ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices National Bank of Egypt higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: National Bank of Egypt -11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
National Bank of Egypt 44.5% 55.6% -11.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 38.2% 28.4% +9.8 pp Model Higher
Ghazl El Mehalla 17.2% 16.0% +1.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates National Bank of Egypt's win probability at 55.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.5%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (National Bank of Egypt win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about National Bank of Egypt than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • National Bank of Egypt attacking xG significantly stronger (0.98 vs 0.51)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced National Bank of Egypt higher (55.5% vs model 44.5%, 11.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (National Bank of Egypt win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · National Bank of Egypt 44.5% · Draw 38.2% · Ghazl El Mehalla 17.3%
    • xG · National Bank of Egypt 0.98 — Ghazl El Mehalla 0.51
  2. Sep 07, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · National Bank of Egypt 1.71 · Draw 3.34 · Ghazl El Mehalla 5.94
    • Implied 1X2 · National Bank of Egypt 55.6% · Draw 28.4% · Ghazl El Mehalla 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · National Bank of Egypt 1.71 · Draw 3.34 · Ghazl El Mehalla 5.94
    • Implied 1X2 · National Bank of Egypt 55.6% · Draw 28.4% · Ghazl El Mehalla 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result National Bank of Egypt win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6473587

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result National Bank of Egypt win · National Bank of Egypt 3–1 Ghazl El Mehalla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-07 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.5% · Draw 38.2% · Away 17.3%
  • xG (showing): National Bank of Egypt 0.98 — Ghazl El Mehalla 0.51 (total xG ≈ 1.49)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 81.1% · Implied: 60.3% · Probability edge: +20.8 pts · Est. EV: +28.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 26.4% · No 73.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (22.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 5 0 0 15
2 Zamalek SC 5 4 1 0 13
3 Al Ahly 5 4 1 0 13
4 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 4 0 1 12
5 Future FC 5 3 1 1 10
6 Al Ittihad 5 3 1 1 10
7 El Mokawloon 5 2 1 2 7
8 Petrojet 5 2 1 2 7
9 El Geish 5 2 1 2 7
10 Masr 5 2 1 2 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 1 3 1 6
12 AL Masry 5 2 0 3 6
13 National Bank of Egypt 5 2 0 3 6
14 Wadi Degla 5 1 2 2 5
15 Enppi 5 1 1 3 4
16 Smouha SC 5 1 1 3 4
17 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 0 4 3
18 El Gouna FC 5 0 2 3 2
19 Asyut Petrol 5 0 2 3 2
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 10 3 +7 12
2 Pyramids FC 5 9 1 +8 15
3 Al Ahly 5 9 3 +6 13
4 Zamalek SC 5 8 1 +7 13
5 Petrojet 5 8 8 0 7
6 Future FC 5 7 4 +3 10
7 Al Ittihad 5 6 3 +3 10
8 El Mokawloon 5 6 5 +1 7
9 Enppi 5 6 9 -3 4
10 El Geish 5 5 5 0 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 5 5 0 6
12 AL Masry 5 5 7 -2 6
13 Masr 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Wadi Degla 5 4 5 -1 5
15 National Bank of Egypt 5 4 7 -3 6
16 El Gouna FC 5 3 6 -3 2
17 Smouha SC 5 1 4 -3 4
18 Asyut Petrol 5 1 5 -4 2
19 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 8 -7 3
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1 9 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 4.7 1.0 +3.7 15
2 AL Masry 5 4.8 2.7 +2.1 6
3 Petrojet 5 5.3 3.7 +1.6 7
4 National Bank of Egypt 5 4.0 2.4 +1.6 6
5 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 5.5 4.1 +1.4 12
6 Al Ahly 5 4.2 3.0 +1.2 13
7 Wadi Degla 5 3.6 3.3 +0.3 5
8 Smouha SC 5 2.2 1.9 +0.3 4
9 Asyut Petrol 5 1.9 1.7 +0.2 2
10 Future FC 5 4.6 4.5 +0.1 10
11 Al Ittihad 5 3.7 3.6 +0.1 10
12 El Geish 5 2.9 3.0 -0.1 7
13 Masr 5 3.1 3.6 -0.5 7
14 Enppi 5 4.9 5.7 -0.8 4
15 Abu Qair Semad 5 0.9 1.7 -0.8 3
16 El Mokawloon 5 3.4 4.4 -1.0 7
17 El Gouna FC 5 3.2 4.9 -1.7 2
18 Olympic El Qanah 5 2.4 4.5 -2.1 6
19 Zamalek SC 5 2.6 5.0 -2.4 13
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1.9 5.0 -3.1 1