Predictions / Football / Egypt. Premier League / Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol

Prediction Audit: Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Ittihad Al Ittihad
Sep 07, 2026 - 14:00
1 0.97
0 1.01
xG Accuracy: 75%
Asyut Petrol Asyut Petrol

The model missed the final outcome (Al Ittihad win 1–0).

The model had projected Draw at 34.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Al Ittihad ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Al Ittihad higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al Ittihad -21.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Ittihad 31.7% 53.1% -21.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 34.5% 30.0% +4.5 pp Aligned
Asyut Petrol 33.8% 16.8% +16.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Al Ittihad's win probability at 53.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.7%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Al Ittihad win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.98, 1 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Al Ittihad

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 21.5 percentage points (56.0% vs model 34.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 07, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Ittihad 31.6% · Draw 34.6% · Asyut Petrol 33.8%
    • xG · Al Ittihad 0.97 — Asyut Petrol 1.01
  2. Sep 07, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Ittihad 1.79 · Draw 3.17 · Asyut Petrol 5.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Ittihad 53.1% · Draw 30.0% · Asyut Petrol 16.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 07, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Ittihad 1.79 · Draw 3.17 · Asyut Petrol 5.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Ittihad 53.1% · Draw 30.0% · Asyut Petrol 16.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 07, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al Ittihad win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472423

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al Ittihad win · Al Ittihad 1–0 Asyut Petrol
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-07 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.6% · Draw 34.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Al Ittihad 0.97 — Asyut Petrol 1.01 (total xG ≈ 1.98)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 68.2% · Over 2.5 31.8%); BTTS Yes (Yes 41.2% · No 58.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.2% · No 58.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 5 0 0 15
2 Zamalek SC 5 4 1 0 13
3 Al Ahly 5 4 1 0 13
4 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 4 0 1 12
5 Future FC 5 3 1 1 10
6 Al Ittihad 5 3 1 1 10
7 El Mokawloon 5 2 1 2 7
8 Petrojet 5 2 1 2 7
9 El Geish 5 2 1 2 7
10 Masr 5 2 1 2 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 1 3 1 6
12 AL Masry 5 2 0 3 6
13 National Bank of Egypt 5 2 0 3 6
14 Wadi Degla 5 1 2 2 5
15 Enppi 5 1 1 3 4
16 Smouha SC 5 1 1 3 4
17 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 0 4 3
18 El Gouna FC 5 0 2 3 2
19 Asyut Petrol 5 0 2 3 2
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 10 3 +7 12
2 Pyramids FC 5 9 1 +8 15
3 Al Ahly 5 9 3 +6 13
4 Zamalek SC 5 8 1 +7 13
5 Petrojet 5 8 8 0 7
6 Future FC 5 7 4 +3 10
7 Al Ittihad 5 6 3 +3 10
8 El Mokawloon 5 6 5 +1 7
9 Enppi 5 6 9 -3 4
10 El Geish 5 5 5 0 7
11 Olympic El Qanah 5 5 5 0 6
12 AL Masry 5 5 7 -2 6
13 Masr 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Wadi Degla 5 4 5 -1 5
15 National Bank of Egypt 5 4 7 -3 6
16 El Gouna FC 5 3 6 -3 2
17 Smouha SC 5 1 4 -3 4
18 Asyut Petrol 5 1 5 -4 2
19 Abu Qair Semad 5 1 8 -7 3
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1 9 -8 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Pyramids FC 5 4.7 1.0 +3.7 15
2 AL Masry 5 4.8 2.7 +2.1 6
3 Petrojet 5 5.3 3.7 +1.6 7
4 National Bank of Egypt 5 4.0 2.4 +1.6 6
5 Ceramica Cleopatra 5 5.5 4.1 +1.4 12
6 Al Ahly 5 4.2 3.0 +1.2 13
7 Wadi Degla 5 3.6 3.3 +0.3 5
8 Smouha SC 5 2.2 1.9 +0.3 4
9 Asyut Petrol 5 1.9 1.7 +0.2 2
10 Future FC 5 4.6 4.5 +0.1 10
11 Al Ittihad 5 3.7 3.6 +0.1 10
12 El Geish 5 2.9 3.0 -0.1 7
13 Masr 5 3.1 3.6 -0.5 7
14 Enppi 5 4.9 5.7 -0.8 4
15 Abu Qair Semad 5 0.9 1.7 -0.8 3
16 El Mokawloon 5 3.4 4.4 -1.0 7
17 El Gouna FC 5 3.2 4.9 -1.7 2
18 Olympic El Qanah 5 2.4 4.5 -2.1 6
19 Zamalek SC 5 2.6 5.0 -2.4 13
20 Ghazl El Mehalla 5 1.9 5.0 -3.1 1